Duterte, Marcos sustain leads in ABS-CBN survey
RG Cruz, ABS-CBN News
(UPDATED) Tough-talking Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte and Senator Bongbong Marcos have sustained their leads in the latest ABS-CBN survey by Pulse Asia Research from April 19-24.
However, administration standard bearer Mar Roxas joined Senator Grace Poe in a statistical tie at 2nd place, overtaking Vice-President Jejomar Binay.
That's amid the furor generated against Duterte by his controversial remarks on the 1989 rape of an Australian missionary. The poll was before news broke about Duterte's bank accounts.
A total of 4,000 respondents were asked, with the survey with a plus-minus 1.5% margin of error.
Results showed that 33% picked Duterte, down from 34% in the last ABS-CBN survey and 35% from the last Pulso ng Bayan survey both done by Pulse Asia.
Eleven points separate Duterte from next placer Senator Grace Poe who was unchanged at 22%.
Roxas, the administration standard bearer, got a bump to 20% from his previous 18%, outscoring Vice President Jejomar Binay 's 18%. Binay dropped 1% from the previous survey.
Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago is still at 2%.
Duterte and Poe share the statistical lead in the National Capital Region (34 and 26). In the rest of Luzon, the most preferred presidential candidate is Poe (29.%). In the Visayas, the top choices for President are Roxas (37%) and Duterte (32%).
Duterte polled 58% in Mindanao, 3 points down from 61% in the previous survey.
Duterte still leads in all social classes although he shares the lead in Class E with Poe. Duterte polled 37% in class ABC, 33% in the biggest voting bloc class D, and 31% in class E. Poe polled 24% in Class E.
Poe is still the top alternative candidate for President.
In the vice-presidential race, Senator Bongbong Marcos polled 31%—2 points higher from the 29% who picked him in the previous ABS-CBN survey.
A total of 26% picked Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo —a 3-point improvement from the previous ABS-CBN survey.
Sharing 3rd place are Senator Chiz Escudero, who is down to 18% from his previous 20%, and Senator Alan Peter Cayateno who is also down—15% from 16%. Around 3% picked Sen. Antonio Trillanes while 2% picked Sen. Gringo Honasan.
Marcos led NCR and Balance Luzon by wide margins (45 and 38), Robredo continued to dominate Visayas (39) and shared the lead with Cayetano, Duterte's runningmate, in Mindanao (27% and 31% ).
Marcos ruled classes ABC and the biggest voting bloc D (38 and 31) and shared the lead with Robredo in Class E (24 and 30).
Escudero is still the top 2nd choice for vice-president.
The list of probable winners in the May 2016 senatorial elections is made up of former or incumbent members of Congress, with former Justice Secretary Leila M. de Lima being the only exception.
Likewise, the senatorial race shows that 5 new faces could join the Senate if they win.
Those in the possible winning circle are Vicente Sotto, Franklin Drilon, Kiko Pangilinan, Ping Lacson, Manny Pacquiao, Migz Zubiri, Risa Hontiveros, Leila de Lima, Serge Osmena, Joel Villanueva, Dick Gordon, Ralph Recto, and Sherwin Gatchalian.
Pacquiao, Hontiveros, De Lima, Villanueva, and Gatchalian would be senators for the first time if they win.
Five are running under the Liberal Party, 2 under the Nationalist People's Coalition, 4 independents , 1 from the United Nationalist Alliance, and 1 from Akbayan.
Filipino registered voters are naming an average of seven (7) of their choices for senator; and 13 out of 50 senatorial candidates have a statistical chance of winning.
History, however, indicates that survey frontrunners don't always end up as No. 1 on election day. In 1992, Fidel Ramos bested survey frontrunner Miriam Defensor Santiago for President. In 2010, Jejomar Binay overtook Mar Roxas and Loren Legarda for vice-president. In the 2013 midterm election, Grace Poe wasn't the leader in the senatorial race surveys—-but she ended up as number 1 with the highest votes for senator ever.