Duterte overtakes Poe, claims lead in ABS-CBN survey

Christian V. Esguerra, ABS-CBN News

MANILA (3rd UPDATE) - Tough-talking Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte topped the latest ABS-CBN survey conducted by Pulse Asia, establishing a clear lead over erstwhile frontrunner Sen. Grace Poe ahead of the May 9 presidential election.

The March 29 - April 3 poll saw 30% of 4,000 registered voters nationwide picking Duterte as their top choice for president.

Poe followed Duterte at 25%.

The survey's error margin of plus minus 1.5 percent means that Duterte was clearly ahead of the pack.

Meanwhile, Vice President Jejomar Binay and administration candidate Mar Roxas were statistically tied at third place with
20% and 19%, respectively.

Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago was at the bottom spot with 2% of the votes.

Duterte overtakes Poe, claims lead in ABS-CBN survey 1

Political analyst Julio Teehankee, a dean at De La Salle University, said the latest survey showed that "momentum" has now shifted to Duterte.

Teehankee said Duterte was successful in putting the issue of peace and order at the center of the campaign.

"This election is becoming a choice for the Filipino people between velvet gloves and an iron fist," he told ABS-CBN News.

Duterte's ally, Davao Rep. Karlo Nograles, said the latest survey validates all the other polls showing the mayor on top of all other presidential aspirants.

"And his opponents know this all too well. That is why we expect more bashing and more attacks from all sides, as the other camps will try desperately to stop Duterte's momentum. Subalit kami po ay naniniwala na huli na ang lahat ng ito dahil kung ano man ang itatapon nilang mga isyu kontra kay Duterte ay pawang pamumulitika lamang," Nograles said.

Poe, for her part, said one can never be confident during the campaign season especially when reaching homestretch.

"Syempre, alam mo hindi pwede talaga na maging kampante ngayon, lalong-lalo na mga ilang linggo pa ang natitira, kailangan talagang magsipag," she said.

"Gayunman, ako'y nagpapasalamat pa rin sa ating mga kababayan na may tiwala pa rin sila at siguro ito'y kung mayroon man ako natutunan sa kampanya, ay walang nakakasiguro kaya kailangang 'di pwedeng makaligtaan ang mga dapat gawin at ipamahagi ang mensahe sa ating mga kababayan."


Poe was down from ABS-CBN's March 15-20 survey where she was slightly ahead of Duterte for the top spot. Her running mate also led in that survey, but was tied with Marcos.

This time, Marcos claimed solo lead with 28 percent, while Escudero dropped to second place with 21 percent.

Escudero was statistically tied with Roxas' running mate, Rep. Leni Robredo, who got 22 percent.

Duterte's running mate, Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano, placed third with 15 percent, followed by Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV with 5 percent and Sen. Gringo Honasan with 4 percent.

According to Marcos, the latest survey is proof that his message for national unity resonates with the Filipino people.

"For years, we have been ruled by divisiveness and I guess the people want to change that because Filipinos are by nature cooperative, kind and gracious. We will keep on going and work harder to spread our message to more people," he said.

Escudero, meanwhile, is unfazed by the drop in his numbers.

"Una, pangalawa, pangatlo, pang-apat, lahat ng survey pinag-aaralan namin. Hindi ako kagaya ng ibang pulitiko na pag mataas, sasabihin totoo ang survey, pag mababa, sasabihin peke yung survey. Lahat ng survey pinag-aaralan namin. Lahat ng survey itinuturing naming input."


Marcos also continued to increase his lead in the vote-rich National Capital Region with 47 percent. He was up from 41 percent in the previous ABS-CBN survey.

Escudero was still at second place in NCR with 19 percent, but his numbers were down from 23 percent in the last survey.

Duterte (32 percent) and Poe (30 percent) both topped NCR, which has around 6.2 million registered voters.

Poe also claimed the rest of Luzon with 31 percent, while Duterte (55 percent) and Roxas (34 percent) were the clear frontrunners in Mindanao and the Visayas, respectively.

Binay led in no particular region or classes. Duterte claimed classes ABC and D.

In the vice presidential race, Marcos was also the top choice voters in the rest of Luzon with 34 percent, while Robredo claimed the Visayas with 36 percent.

Like Duterte, Marcos was the frontrunner in classes ABC and D where he got 39 percent and 29 percent, respectively. Cayetano led in Mindanao with 30 percent.

Duterte overtakes Poe, claims lead in ABS-CBN survey 2


The survey also showed that Poe is the leading second choice of voters if their top choice does not purse the presidency for whatever reason.

Poe was the second choice of 41% of the followers of Duterte, Roxas and Binay, and 35% of the supporters of Santiago.

Thirty-three percent of Poe's own supporters identified Binay as their second choice for president, while 24% chose Duterte.

In the vice-presidential race, most voters will support Escudero if their top vice presidential bet backs out from the polls.

He was the second choice of 34% of Marcos supporters, and 38% of Robredo and Cayetano's followers.

Thirty percent of the followers of Trillanes and 26% of Honasan's supporters also identified him as their alternative candidate.

Twenty-four percent of Escudero's own supporters, meanwhile, identified Cayetano as their second choice. Another 20% chose Marcos.


In the senatorial race, six administration candidates landed in the Magic 12, but not Sen. TG Guingona, who was in the 13th to 15th places.

Those in the Top 12 were Senate President Franklin Drilon (1st-2nd), former Sen. Francis Pangilinan (3rd-4th), former Sec. Leila De Lima (5th-9th), Sen. Ralph Recto (6th-12th), former Sec. Joel Villanueva (7th-12th), and ex-Rep. Risa Hontiveros (7th-12th).

Sen. Vicente Sotto III, who belongs to Poe's ticket, was tied with Drilon at first place.

Also in the Magic 12 were ex-Sen. Panfilo Lacson (3rd-4th), former Sen. Juan Miguel Zubiri (5th-6th), Sen. Sergio OsmeƱa III (6th-12th), Manny Pacquiao (6th-12th), and former Sen. Richard Gordon (7th-12th). - With reports from RG Cruz and Jeff Canoy, ABS-CBN News; Mylce Mella, ABS-CBN News Bicol