Poe surges in SWS survey after second debate

ABS-CBN News

MANILA – The number of respondents choosing Senator Grace Poe as their preferred presidential candidate rose following the second Commission on Elections ''PiliPinas Debates 2016'' was held, a Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey said.

The SWS mobile survey, held in partnership with TV5, was conducted two days after the March 20 debate. It found 35% of the respondents choosing Poe; Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, 26%; Vice President Jejomar Binay, 18%; former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas,17%; and Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago, who did not attend the debate, 2%. One percent of the respondents were undecided.

The Bilang Pilipino SWS Mobile Survey also held a survey involving the same set of respondents two days prior to the debate. In that survey, 33% opted for Poe; 24% for Duterte; 20% for Binay; 18% for Roxas; and 3% for Santiago. Two percent were undecided.

SWS noted that both the March 18 and March 22 surveys were intended to involve 1,200 respondents. In the March 18 survey, however, 883 or 74 percent responded, while 806 or 67 percent responded to the March 22 survey.

Seventy-seven respondents who answered the March 18 survey were unable to respond to the March 22 survey, SWS noted.

The March 18 survey has sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages, ±6% in the Visayas, and ±7% in Metro Manila, Balance Luzon and Mindanao.

The March 22 survey has sampling error margins of ±3 percent for national percentages, and ±7 percent in Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao.

POST-DEBATE

SWS said that of the 35% who voiced support for Poe in the March 22 survey, 25.2% remained firm on their choice; 2.2% were former supporters of Binay; 1.9%, Roxas; 1.6%, Duterte; 0.9%, Santiago; 0.6% used to be undecided; and 3.1% did not vote on the March 18 survey.

Of the 26% respondents who picked Duterte, 18.8% did not change their minds from the previous survey; 1.6% were former supporters of Poe; 1.5%, Binay; 0.6%, Roxas; 0.3%, Santiago; 0.2% used to be undecided; and 3% did not vote on the March 18 survey.

Of the 18% who chose Binay, 14.% still stood behind him; 0.7% were former supporters of Poe; 0.3%, Duterte; 0.2% Santiago; 0.1%, Roxas; and 2% did not vote on the March 18 survey.

Of the 17% who picked Roxas, 14.3% still picked him; 1% were former Poe supporters; 0.2%, Duterte; 0.1%, Binay; 0.3 % undecided; and 1.6% did not vote on te March 18 survey.

POE BEATS MAR IN VISAYAS

In terms of geographic area, Poe led in Metro Manila with 31%, followed by Duterte with 27%, Binay with 20%, Roxas with 16%, and Santiago with 5%.

Poe also dominated Balance Luzon with 43%, followed by Binay with 24%, Duterte with 16%, Roxas with 15%, and Santiago with 1%.

In the Visayas, a known Roxas stronghold, Poe also led with 35%, beating the Liberal Party bet who got 30%. They are followed by Duterte with 21%, Binay with 10%, and Santiago with 2%.

Duterte dominated Mindanao with 49%, followed by Poe with 25%, Binay and Roxas with 12% each, and Santiago with 2%.

VP RACE

Meanwhile, Senator Francis Escudero led the March 22 survey with 30%. He is statistically tied with Sen. Bongbong Marcos who got 28%. Following them are Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo with 23%, Sen. Alan Cayetano with 11%, Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV with 4%, and Sen. Gringo Honasan with 2%. Three percent of the respondents were undecided.

BEST DEBATE PERFORMANCE

In another survey conducted March 21, SWS found that 39% of the respondents named Grace Poe as the one who performed best during the March 20 debate.

Poe is followed by Duterte with 31%, Roxas with 17%, and Binay with 8%.The remaining 4% could not give an answer.

SWS did the survey using the same means. Of the 1,200 original panel respondents, 794 or 66% responded. This gives sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages, and ±7% in Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.