Poe takes solo lead, Duterte in 2nd place: Pulse Asia
Christian V. Esguerra, ABS-CBN News
MANILA - Vice President Jejomar Binay dropped to third place as Sen. Grace Poe claimed solo lead in the latest Pulse Asia survey of possible winners in the May presidential election.
Poe improved by two percentage points to 28 percent in the March 1-6 survey commissioned by ABS-CBN and which covered 2,600 respondents.
The survey was completed two days before the Supreme Court ruled that she could run for president. It also came after the Nationalist People’s Coalition, the second largest political party in the country, had endorsed her candidacy.
READ: Full details of ABS-CBN pre-electoral National Survey (March 15, 2016)
Binay was down by three points to 21 percent after sharing the lead with Poe in Pulse Asia’s Feb. 16-27 survey. He’s now in a statistical tie with Roxas, who had 20 percent, for third place.
Duterte was still in second place with 24 percent, which improved by two points from the February survey.
WHAT IF POE QUIT?
Poe emerged as the top choice of voters (29 percent) if their original pick quit the presidential race. Binay was second with 21 percent, while Roxas and Duterte were tied for third place with 14 percent.
Binay stood to benefit the most should Poe drop out of the presidential race, according to the survey, which had a margin of error of plus minus 1.9 percent.
It showed 29 percent of Poe’s original voters going to Binay, while 24 percent would vote for former Secretary Mar Roxas, and 17 percent for Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte.
Poe’s supporters believe she could hit as high as 35 percent in the next survey as a result of the favorable ruling she got from the Supreme Court.
But Prof. Edna Co, of the UP Center for Integrative and Development Studies, warned that it’s also possible that Poe might not hit that number.
If that happened, she said: “it’s something that they should be bothered about.”
As the top alternative among voters of three other presidential contenders, Poe stood to attract 41 percent of Binay’s original voters, 38 percent of Roxas’, and 30 percent of Duterte’s.
Thirty-three percent of Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago’s original voters would go for Duterte in case she dropped out of the race.
BATTLE FOR METRO MANILA
Metro Manila, which has at least 6.2 million registered voters in May, remains a major battleground for Poe, Duterte, and Binay who were statistically tied for first place there.
Poe was the top choice of 30 percent of voters in Metro Manila, while Duterte and Binay each had 23 percent.
Roxas, who had 13 percent in Metro Manila, led the race in the Visayas with 37 percent. Duterte was the leading choice in Mindanao (47 percent), while Poe was the survey leader in the rest of Luzon (36 percent).
It was a four-way tie among Duterte, Binay, Poe, and Roxas among Classes ABC and E. Poe was still the clear frontrunner among those belonging to Class D with 29 percent.
In the race for the vice presidency, Poe’s running-mate, Sen. Francis Escudero, was still in a statistical tie with Sen. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. for first place.
Escudero, who was also endorsed by the NPC, was the top choice of 25 percent of the respondents. Marcos had 22 percent, which was down by 4 points from the February survey. Escudero lost a point.
Trailing the frontrunners was Roxas’ running-mate, Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo, who had 21 percent. Robredo’s numbers were up by 3 points from the February survey.
Duterte’s running mate, Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano, was in third place with 14 percent, followed by Sen. Antonio Trillanes with 6 percent, and Sen. Gregorio Honasan with 5 percent.
In the senatorial race, two members of the administration ticket are vying for the 12th and final slot: former Secretary Joel Villanueva and Sen. TG Guingona. Also in contention is Valenzuela Rep. Sherwin Gatchalian, who is included in Poe’s slate.
A total of 14 candidates, mostly incumbent or former legislators, have a statistical chance of making it in the Magic 12.
Leading the pack is former Sen. Francis Pangilinan. The list includes Sen. Vicente Sotto III, Senate President Franklin Drilon, former Sen. Panfilo Lacson, Sen. Ralph Recto, former Sen. Juan Miguel Zubiri, Sen. Sergio Osmeña III, former Sen. Richard Gordon, ex-Rep. Risa Hontiveros, Rep. Manny Pacquiao, and former Justice Secretary Leila De Lima.