Analyst: OAV results might decide 'stomach churning' VP race


The few hundred thousand of votes coming from overseas absentee voting (OAV) can spell out the difference in the tight vice-presidential race, said an analyst on Tuesday.

Vivian Tin, Head of Integrated Customer Business Development of ABS-CBN Corporation, said that aside from the votes coming in from Visayas and Mindanao, the transmittal of the votes from Filipinos overseas "can make a very big difference."

"If you look at their difference, a few hundred thousand can make a lot of difference depending on which way those go," Tin said on ANC.

As of 12:59 PM, only 185,173 votes stand between front runners Rep. Leni Robredo and Sen. Bongbong Marcos.

Tin, who has expected the race to be a "very stomach churning counting process" for both candidates, also said the pre-election surveys could not have possibly predicted the winner.

"It’s the kind of tight race where surveys don’t work very well because in a contest where you’re down to only 1% difference, you’re in the margin of error. It could go either way and no survey could possibly predict it well," she said.

For a long while, it was Sen. Chiz Escudero who was leading the polls, but Tin echoed Prof. Prospero De Vera's sentiment that a fallout in Escudero's base fortified Robredo's, and citing their studies, she said "it really had more to do on what Leni did than what Chiz did."

Marcos, she noted, carried the equity of his father and their family into the race, while Robredo carried the "equity of a woman who's strong and intelligent."

"I think Chiz just did not define a space for himself and (Sen. Alan Peter) Cayetano rode on the shadow of Duterte," she said.

"So you basically only had two defined candidates insofar as what they represented is concerned in the vice-presidential election," she added.


Results reported on Monday evening saw Marcos leading because "the Luzon votes came in earlier and the Visayas, Mindanao were trailing," added Tin.

Robredo, she said, has a stronghold in Visayas and Mindanao and with the votes from those areas slowly coming in, the determining factor would be the turnout rate in those areas.

The shift overnight was surprising but cheating allegations can be cleared by the public's perception of the candidates.

"I think it would have to do with what they think of both candidates in terms of character because when accusations of cheating come up, at the end of the day, the public will judge based on what they know of the candidate," Tin said.