Pollster explains Duterte's rise in pre-election survey

Kathlyn dela Cruz, ABS-CBN News

MANILA - While Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte has seen a rise in his survey numbers, it is the opposite for Vice President Jejomar Binay, a recent pre-election poll shows.

Speaking to radio dzMM Wednesday, Junie Laylo of Laylo Research Strategies said the results of their latest survey, conducted from March 26 to April 1 among 3,000 respondents, shows Duterte beating erstwhile front runner Senator Grace Poe at the top spot with 30% voter support.

Poe came in second with 27%, statistically tied with Duterte, as the survey had a plus/minus 1.8% margin of error. Poe was followed by Mar Roxas (21%), Binay (18%), and Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago (2%).

According to Laylo, Duterte likely benefited from the drop in Binay's voter support from 23% in February to 18% in March. Duterte had 24% support in February.

"Yes," Laylo said, when asked if Binay's numbers likely went to Duterte. "Kasi si Senator Poe medyo sa national level, flat lang naman, 26%, 27%. So dun (Binay) talaga siya (Duterte) kumuha," he explained.

The Standard Poll, which covered 79 provinces and 40 highly-urbanized cities, was conducted following the second presidential debate in Cebu.

READ: Row over rules: Why 2nd presidential debate was delayed

Laylo said 40% of the survey respondents said they were able to watch the debate live.

"Ang lumabas dun si Mayor Duterte ang pinakamagaling daw. Lalo pa siyempre dun yun ginanap sa Cebu, Central Visayas, kaya dun din siya umangat," he said.

The Davao City mayor was also able to penetrate some areas known as bailiwicks of the other presidential candidates, and this also contributed to the increase in his numbers, said Laylo.

Duterte's voter support rose from 23% in February to 30% in March in the National Capital Region (NCR), and from 11% to 18% in North and Central Luzon.

Roxas' numbers, on the other hand, have remained "flat" in the 21%-22% range since January.


Meanwhile, Senators Francis "Chiz" Escudero and Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. were statistically tied in the vice presidential race with 28% and 25%, respectively.

Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo followed with 21%, then Senators Alan Peter Cayetano (15%), Antonio Trillanes IV (5%) and Gringo Honasan (3%).

"Siyempre may lumalabas din siyang mga mensahe at nakaka-attract naman ito ng segment ng ating botante," Laylo said, when asked about Marcos' improvement in surveys.

"It's all about the messaging," Laylo added.