(UPDATED) If the 2019 polls were to be held this month, reelectionists and comebackers would likely be voted into office by voters in the National Capital Region (NCR) instead of newcomers, a study showed.
The 'Pahayag NCR' poll, conducted by political strategy firm PUBLiCUS Asia Inc. on November 16-20, 2018, found that voters in Metro Manila included Grace Poe, Pia Cayetano, Cynthia Villar, Nancy Binay, and Lito Lapid in their Top 5 senatorial bets.
Other contenders for the 12 spots included Sonny Angara, Sergio Osmena III, Bam Aquino, JV Ejercito, and Jinggoy Estrada.
The newcomers in the top 12 were former Philippine National Police (PNP) chief Ronald 'Bato' Dela Rosa and Ilocos Norte Governor Imee Marcos.
According to Lilibet Amatong, co-founder and chief operating officer of PUBLiCUS, strong 'Preference' by voters seemed to go hand-in-hand with high 'Awareness' as well as a high 'Trust rating.'
Voters' awareness for candidates in the Top 12 ranged from 80% to as high as 90%, while their trust ratings ranged from 62% to 87%, a far cry from most new faces whose awareness and trust ratings were mostly rated below 51%.
Scoring highest in voter awareness was Binay, while Poe led trust ratings.
The 'Pahayag NCR' study is an independent or non-commissioned drill poll focusing on participants in NCR. It was done through PUBLiCUS' research arm Vox Opinion research, which polled the opinions of about 1,862 respondents who were registered voters from Metro Manila, through face-to-face, computer-aided personal interviews.
To draw the barangays included in the study, researchers used simple random sampling. They then allocated 5 interviews per barangay, and used a kish grid to determine the probable respondent to be interviewed per household. Disproportionate sampling was used to get at least n=100 for each city. Margin of error was 2.3% at 95% confidence interval, PUBLiCUS said.
The questions asked which were relevant to preference were: "Who among the following personalities have you heard, read, or watched anything about, at any time?", "Using a rating scale of one (1) to four (4), where 1 means you have 'no trust,' and 4 means you have 'big trust,' how much do you trust or distrust the following?" and "Please tell me who among the following candidates for senator will you vote for the Senate in 2019 if elections were to be held today? Choose up to 12 names."