MANILA – The outbreak of African swine fever and falling prices of rough rice could weigh on the agriculture sector, an analyst said Tuesday.
The disease could cut pork supply as demand picks up ahead of the holidays. Farmers will likely have less disposable income due to smaller margins on palay, Teneo managing director Bob Herrera-Lim told ANC.
"The challenge for the government is how to manage the two sides of that equation – keeping consumers happy but at the same time ensuring that [palay] farmers have disposable income," Herrera-Lim said.
Culling of pigs to contain the spread of African swine fever will also cause “supply gaps” in the 4th quarter when the demand for pork meat products such as lechon and ham surges, he said.
Over 7,000 pigs were culled to prevent the spread of the disease, which means affected farmers will have less income over the next 3 to 6 months or the time it takes to raise another batch, Herrera-Lim said.
Two thirds of the total 12 million hogs in the country are being raised in backyard piggeries, he said.
“As we’ve seen in Vietnam, this is a very difficult thing to do so we might have some supply gaps in the near term especially the source starts to get culled and you have a decline in supply coming in to the holiday season, which is not good for inflation, which makes consumers unhappy,” he said.
Farmers need immediate assistance in form of cash income support and tools to raise productivity, he said.
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