PH makes Top 10 list of 'fastest growing' economies

By Cathy Rose A. Garcia,

Posted at Aug 21 2012 02:19 PM | Updated as of Aug 22 2012 10:26 PM

MANILA, Philippines - The Philippines is predicted to be one of the top 10 fastest growing economies in the world in the next 40 years, according to Knight Frank and Citi Private Wealth's 2012 Wealth Report.

The Philippines is seen to be the 6th fastest growing economy in the world between 2010-2050, with gross domestic product (GDP) at 7.3%.

The Wealth Report's list of fastest growing economies is topped by Nigeria with 8.5% growth rate, followed by India with 8%, Iraq 7.7% and Bangladesh and Vietnam both with 7.5%.

On 7th spot is Mongolia with 6.9%, Indonesia with 6.8%, Sri Lanka with 6.6% and Egypt with 6.4%.

In contrast, the 10 countries that are predicted to grow the least in the next 40 years are Spain, France, Sweden, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria, Netherlands, Italy, Germany and Japan.

Citi research forecasts that developing Asia's share of world real GDP will increase to 49% in 2050 from 27% in 2010. Meanwhile, North American and Western European countries' share of global GDP will fall to 18% in 2050 from 41% in 2010.

China's economy is expected to overtake the US as the world's biggest economy by 2020. However, India is seen to overtake China by 2050.

"Citi research shows that while China and India are likely to grow rapidly over the next 40 years, there are other key countries with promising chances for growth that do not necessarily match the traditional assumptions about where future growth will emanate from," Grainne Gilmore, head of UK Residential Research at Knight Frank, said, in the report.

"For example, Russia and Brazil, which make up the so-called BRIC nations alongside China and India, do not make it on to Citi’s list of Global Growth Generators – or '3G' countries. Instead, Citi includes countries such as Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iraq, Mongolia, Nigeria, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam on this list," she added.

The report also quoted Citi chief ecnomist Willem Buiter: "All of these (3G) countries are poor today and have decades of catch-up growth to look forward to. Some of them, including Nigeria, Mongolia, Iraq and Indonesia, also have large natural resources that we hope will be more beneficial than they so often have been in the past."

The Wealth Report noted that Asian economies, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea, are projected to be the world's richest economies on a per capita basis by 2050.

Singapore topped the list in 2010 and is expected to keep the top spot in 2050, when the city-state's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita would reach $137,710. Taiwan and South Korea were not even in the top 10 in 2010.

Gilmore said there are now around 18,000 "centa-millionaires" -- those with $100 million or more in assets -- in the region covering Southeast Asia, China and Japan, more than the 17,000 in North America and 14,000 in Western Europe.

By 2016, Southeast Asia, China and Japan are expected to have 26,000 centa-millionaires, compared with 21,000 in North America and 15,000 in Western Europe, Gilmore wrote, citing data from Ledbury Research. - With Agence France-Presse