Disclosure: All data provided are from the Department of Health’s various information sites including their data drop. Where appropriate, other graphs, illustrations, tables and data are appropriately referenced.
November 22, 2020 (updated)
While the world usually sees a decrease in cases over weekends, the trend is not the same in the Philippines. With close to 2,000 new cases today, the province of Cavite is back on top of the leader board. Two cities seem to be battling it out for the top spot when it comes to contributing to the Covid pool – Quezon City in NCR, and Davao City in Davao del Sur.
With 43 new deaths, the case fatality rate remains at 1.94 percent. With its weekly clearing operations for recoveries, the estimated number of recovered patients is up 92.3 percent. Caution is provided in interpreting the data in terms of percentage, because numerically, there is still close to 25,000 active cases in the Philippines.
Yesterday’s data breakdown
- The surge in Central Luzon, particularly in the province of Tarlac was evident as Region III led in the over-all number of cases for the day yesterday with 362 cases.
- Other regions with triple digits were: NCR, CALABARZON, Davao Region, Western and Central Visayas.
- While the province of Tarlac raked in 211 cases and topped the list of ten provinces for the day, it was Davao City and Capas, Tarlac that tied on the list of cases among cities/municipalities in the country.
- Seven cities in NCR are in the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases.
- Capas and Tarlac City were in 2nd and 4th places, while the province of Cebu snatched three of the top twenty places.
The week that was
- The Philippines is seeing a gradual decline in the total weekly cases. This is correlated with the Rt, which sees a dip from 0.98 to 0.88, and the Rt of the NCR is lower compared to the national Rt.
- There is a gradual rise in the case fatality rate for the Philippines, which now trends close to 2 percent (still lower than the global average which is steadily declining to 2.37 percent).
- While the number of testing in the country has considerably declined, the daily positivity rate has trended below 10 percent (averaging 6-7 percent), with the NCR having daily positivity rates lower than 5 percent for the last week.
With close to 600,000 cases for a 7-day average, the world now surpasses 58 Million coronavirus cases. If it continues its current rate, it should not surprise us that there would be close to 63 million by the end of the month.
The United States continues to lead globally in terms of both total and daily cases and deaths.
Because there are now eleven countries with more than 1 million cases each, instead of posting the top ten, the countries with more than one million cases will be announced daily.
- Global case fatality rate continues to track downward to 2.37 percent due to more cases than deaths.
- Among the countries with most coronavirus cases, the highest death rate belongs to Mexico, which has a case fatality rate close to 10 percent (or 1 in every 10 person who comes down with coronavirus will most likely die).
- Yemen, a country with a population of 30 million people, owns the highest death rate. And while it has barely seen cases since August, of the 2,093 cases it has, 608 of them resulted in deaths (for a case fatality rate of 29 percent or 1 in every 4 people with coronavirus dying).
- Six European nations were among the top ten contributors to the pool of new cases yesterday – Italy, Poland, UK, France, Germany and Ukraine.
- Among selected countries in Asia that are still seeing increasing cases, the graph below shows that Indonesia is still not testing enough and Japan is seeing an increase in the number of coronavirus cases per day. In fact, like the United States, Japan is in its third wave.
- Second waves are challenging. We need to remember that a first wave comes from a baseline value of ZERO case. It is imperative that we work at bringing the number of cases back to ZERO (or single digits). Any rise from a triple digit number of cases can and will potentially give rise to a second wave that is more difficult to control. In the graph below, note that while there are efforts at reducing the number of cases in a second wave, the efforts can prove futile when pandemic fatigue sets in and reopening the economy needs to be addressed. The third wave is evidently more challenging and taxing. From a mathematical modeling point of view, the baseline is much higher and the outcomes grimmer.