Disclosure: All data provided are from the Department of Health’s various information sites including their data drop. Where appropriate, other graphs, illustrations, tables and data are appropriately referenced.
October 04, 2020 (updated)
- We are back at the 3,000 level with 3,190 newly reported cases today bringing our total to 322,497. There were 23 cases removed from the total case count.
- 40 percent of the total are from the National Capital Region.
- Of the 1,279 cases reported today from NCR (yes, we’re back at four digit reports), 994 (77.7 percent) are recent (from September 21-October 4).
- There were 15 laboratories that failed to submit reports on October 3, so expect higher numbers tomorrow and in the coming days.
- Of the 3,190 newly announced cases today, 84.9 percent or 2,709 are recent (September 21-October 4, 2020).
- NCR continues to have the lion’s share of backlogs with almost 25 percent of the total today from March to September 20.
- More than 40 percent of today’s cases come from outside of NCR and CALABARZON with Region I (Ilocos Region) in fifth and CAR in sixth. The latter two reported 110 and 104 newly announced cases, respectively.
- The weekend haul brings up the total recovery rate to 84.7 percent.
- 100 deaths reported today brings the case fatality rate up at 1.79 percent.
- Most of the deaths today are from NCR (36 percent) followed by CALABARZON (28 percent) and Western Visayas (9 percent).
- 73 percent of the reported deaths occurred within September and October.
- 140 testing centers (107 RT-PCR and 33 GenExpert)
- 3,639,828 individuals tested (around 33,080 tests/million population) as of October 03 but reported on October 04.
Yesterday’s data breakdown
- NCR and Region IVA continued to account for 67.3 percent of the total cases in the Philippines.
- Regions III, VI and VIII rounded up the top five yesterday.
- The daily positivity rate has hovered below the 10 percent mark since September 5 – or for 27 consecutive days.
- While NCR has been seeing less positive cases lately, data from October 2 showed that NCR accounted for 62 percent of the total positive cases for that date. While the daily positive rate in both the country and NCR is lower, the number of positive cases from testing facilities in the NCR has seen a rise the past days.
- NCR will remain at the top of the heap. With 1,046 total cases yesterday, Quezon City remains the leader of the group followed by the City of Manila. These two cities alone accounted for 31 percent of the total cases in the NCR or more than 12 percent of the total cases in the Philippines.
- While NCR maintained the lead among the top provinces, ALL provinces in the CALABARZON region were not only in the top 10 but were second to fifth, and seventh spot .
- Negros Occidental exchanges with Iloilo province as top province in the Western Visayas region.
- The province of Pangasinan rounded up the tenth spot among top provinces.
- NCR ranked 1-9 in the top 20 and predominated the top twenty cities/municipalities yesterday with 13 of 17 cities.
- Three cities in Cavite were in the top twenty list – Imus, Bacoor and Dasmariñas.
- Butuan City in Agusan del Norte was the surprise of the day, ranking 18th among the top 20 with 41 cases.
The world officially crosses the 35,000,000 mark.
- Case fatality rate: 2.95 percent
- The global 7-day rolling average for cases is around 290,000 cases/day with deaths around 5,500 deaths/day.
- India continued to lead in cases and deaths and has exceeded 6.5M cases and over 100,000 in deaths.
- Ecuador and the Ukraine make it to the top ten in deaths. Indonesia and the Philippines were 11th and 12th, respectively. With the 100 deaths reported today by the Philippines, we will most likely make it to the top ten tomorrow.
Feature story of the day
The week in review
We did better last week than this week.
While the Health Agency reminds us to focus on the active cases, it is alarming the the number of active cases continue to increase. Everyone has to remember that the Health Agency puts a disclaimer that it continues to validate and has the right to “clean up” the cases – resurrect the dead or bury the declared living – over a period of time.
This is the reason why “recovery rates” are not reliable parametric endpoints compared to cases and deaths. Besides, more than 15 percent of the daily newly announced cases are from March to mid-September, particularly for the National Capital Region and Region IVA.
With a Rt of almost 1 (as of October 2, 2020), we expect these active cases to replicate. For every one new case, it has the potential to infect another one. As long as the active cases and the new cases continue to rise, we should not expect better days ahead.
Every time the Philippines attempts to reopen its economy, it is met with increasing number of new cases. Can it all be simply attributed to more testing? Perhaps not. Because the case fatality rate is up at 1.79 percent from a low of 1.72 percent in late August. As reporting deaths can be trickier than reporting recoveries, this month will be crucial for the outlook of the last quarter of the year.