[Disclaimer: Whatever is written here is based on information released by the Department of Health at the time of publication. Whatever changes the DoH makes in their data later on…well that’s a different story in itself and as they say in their disclaimer: “the total cases reported may be subject to change as these numbers undergo constant cleaning and validation.”]
Twenty-five percent of the total cases today were backlogs.
Of the 3,375 total reported by the Health Agency, 2,519 occurred between September 4-17, 2020. The bulk of the backlog is from the month of August with 724 (21.5 percent) cases.
With today’s newly announced cases, the Philippines crosses the 270,000 mark. With only 317 recoveries our active cases are up at 63,408, of which 3.8 percent or 2,410 cases (up from 2,354 yesterday) are either severe or critically ill. [As to whether how many are hospitalized or are at home is not indicated.]
NCR continues to lead among all the regions in the Philippines but had only 963 cases reported today (with only 742 recent).
Mega Manila accounted for less than 30 percent of the cases today. In the top five are a mixed bag – with Bulacan in Region III reporting 448 cases, Cavite and Batangas in Region IVA and Negros Occidental in Region VI.
Note however that the three regions in Luzon have data that are mostly backlogs being reported, with Region III having most of the data occurring in August coming in only today. The same is true for the NCR and Region IVA.
Summary of the recoveries and fatalities today
- Recoveries: 317 reported today, recovery rate 75.3 percent (down)
- Fatalities: 53 reported today, case fatality rate 1.73 percent (unchanged)
- NCR reported 25 total deaths followed by CALABARZON with 12.
- 36 of 54 (67 percent) of the deaths occurred in September while the remaining 33 percent were July and August.
- 67 cases were previously tagged as recoveries but on further validation were removed from the list.
With 126 testing facilities, the DoH reports 3,039,945 individuals tested as of September 16, 2020. Around 2.76 percent of the total population have been tested for SARS-COV2.
THE DATA YESTERDAY
- 3,013,014 individuals tested (~ 2.74 percent of total population) as of September 15, 2020
- September 15, 2020: 2,773 positives from 31,919 individuals tested.
- Reports from: 103 of 114 testing laboratories (90.3 percent submission rate)
- Of the 2,773 positives on September 15, 2020, 55 percent (1,523) were reported from 37 of 42 testing facilities in NCR.
- Daily positive rate for September 15, 2020 nationally: 8.7 percent (down).
- For NCR the daily positive rate for September 15, 2020 was 9.4 percent (cumulative positive rate for NCR also down at 12.3 percent).
- Cumulative positive rate for September 14, 2020 nationally: 10.5 percent (down)
While we are at testing capacity, let me place some perspective on the claim of the spokesperson of the president regarding his statement that among the countries in the region (Southeast Asia), the Philippines leads in the number of tests done.
The adequacy in number of tests done is dependent on the total population of the country and not merely the quantitative number of tests conducted. If, for example, the country has 100,000,000 people, having done 1,000,000 tests may not be sufficient because that would mean the country has tested only 10,000 people per million population. If the positivity rate in that country is more than 10 percent, the 1,000,000 individuals tested is insufficient.
To provide more accurate data, the table below summarizes the current testing capacity in selected countries in Asia. Note that Singapore, a tiny nation of 5.86 Million people ranks third in Asia and 15th in the world for number of tests conducted with 2,498,073 tests done. Lower in total number of tests done compared to the Philippines, but in terms of tests done per million population, has done 426,287 tests per million people.
China, a country with 1.45 Billion people has conducted more than 160,000,000 tests (111,163 tests per million) ranks only 15th in Asia or 64th in the world when it comes to testing capacity.
While the Philippines has made gains at testing capacity with 3,200,528 tests done to date, with a population of 110 million people, that ends up with only 29,126 tests/million population. Putting us at 31st in rank in Asia, and 132nd in the world.
- Total number of confirmed cases: 272,934 (as of September 16, 2020)
- Total cases yesterday (September 16, 2020): 3,550 newly reported (2,984 recent or 84 percent from September 3-16, 2020)
- Region with highest number of cases for September 16, 2020: NCR – 1459 total (1,168 recent)
- Top regions (with more than 100 cases) for September 16, 2020: NCR, Regions IVA, III, and VI.
- Regions with single digit report: Bicol Region
- Repatriates: 10 new cases (Total: 11,171 as of September 16, 2020).
- Unidentified on a regional level: 165 cases. (Total unknowns: 6,338)
The unknowns (Cases with NO TAGGED LOCATIONS)
Total unknowns: 485 (13.7 percent down from 36 percent the day before).
- Regional level: 165
- Provincial level: 211 (177 from CALABARZON, 33 from MIMAROPA, 1 from Davao Region)
- City/Municipality level: 109 (52 from NCR, 28 from Negros Occidental, 13 from Zambales and the rest from other provinces in the country)
The known (Top 5 Regions)
- NCR regains the top position (of course it should) with 1459 total cases (1168 recent or 80 percent).
- Cities with more than 100 cases: Quezon City, Manila, Caloocan, and Valenzuela
- Cities with 50 to less than 100 cases: Pasig, Makati, Parañaque, Pasay, Taguig, and Marikina
- Cities with 10 or more but less than 50 cases: Las Piñas, Navotas, Mandaluyong, Malabon, San Juan, and Muntinlupa
- Cities with single digit cases: Pateros
- Total with no tagged location on a city level: 52 cases
Top four regions outside of NCR on September 16, 2020 were:
- Rizal (for Region IVA)
- Bulacan (for Region III)
- Negros Occidental (for Region VI)
- Leyte (for Region VIII)
- Region IVA was back in second with 953 total cases (808 recent or 85 percent).
- The province of Rizal recorded 271 cases followed by Cavite, Laguna and Batangas
- The city of Antipolo (in the province of Rizal) reported the highest number of cases at 62, on a city/municipality level.
- CALABARZON reported the most number of cases with no identified province: 177
- There were 12 individuals with no tagged location on a city/municipality level (6 from Cavite and 6 from Batangas)
- Central Luzon was third with 361 cases (333 recent or 92 percent).
- The province of Bulacan led with 172 cases (48 percent of the total in the region).
- It was the municipality of Mariveles that recorded the most number of cases (67) on a city/municipality level. Mariveles accounted for 78 percent of the cases in Bataan alone.
- There were 13 cases from Zambales that had no tagged location on a city/municipality level.
- Region VI was back in fourth with 148 total cases (137 recent or 93 percent)
- Bacolod City had the highest number of cases on a city/municipality level with 39 for the province of Negros Occidental, while Iloilo City led with 17 cases among the cities/municipality in the province of Iloilo.
- 29 of the cases had no tagged location on a city/municipality level (28 from Negros Occidental, 1 from Iloilo).
- Eastern Visayas came in fifth with 72 cases (69 recent or 96 percent)
- The province of Leyte had the most cases (32) on a provincial level
- The city of Catbalogan had the most cases (18) on a city/municipality level.
- 7-day average of new cases as of September 16, 2020: 3,972 cases/day (higher)
- 7-day average of new deaths as of September 16, 2020: 106 deaths/day (unchanged)
The world has officially passed the 30,000,000 mark.
- Global case fatality rate: 3.15 percent
- Global recovery rate: 72.6 percent
The world is back at more than 300,000 cases yesterday with a new 7-day average high at 286,216 cases/day.
The total global deaths were slightly lower with 5,746 new deaths posted, bringing the 7-day death average to 5,276 deaths/day.
The United States continues to lead with more than 6.8 million cases. The United States reported the highest deaths in the world yesterday with 1,151 deaths overnight. The number of cases in the US has eased to around 42,000 cases/day.
India’s story on the other hand is different as it continues to dominate the global numbers with a new record for the nation with 97,859 cases. With a 7-day moving average of 93,000 cases/day, India will most likely cross the next million mark in more or less 10 days.
Brazil remains in third place but has seen considerable slowing down of the number of new cases and new deaths.
- India continues to top the list with a new record high for the nation at 97,859 cases.
- Two European nations – Spain and France – continue to see huge increases in new cases as they ride their second wave.
- The United States has reported the highest deaths yesterday. While India reported less deaths than the US, India had more than twice the cases of the United States. (The case fatality rate of the US stands at 2.95 percent compared to India at 1.62 percent)
- Indonesia ranked 9th in global deaths yesterday with 135 recently announced fatalities.
As I mentioned, the problem with our gains is its unsustainability. We were doing great for 10 days, then we’re back to the story called “here we go again”. The New York Times Tracking the Global Outbreak had the Philippines at the category of “new cases are lower and staying low” for the past 10 days. Getting recategorized under “where new cases are lower but going up” and “where new deaths are increasing” does not augur well for the efforts we make.
It’s not a matter of choosing between economy or health. It’s really making up concrete plans where both co-exist. Because in reality, that is the new normal.