[Disclaimer: Whatever is written here is based on information released by the Department of Health at the time of publication. Whatever changes the DoH makes in their data later on…well that’s a different story in itself and as they say in their disclaimer: “the total cases reported may be subject to change as these numbers undergo constant cleaning and validation.”]
With 3,372 newly reported cases (2,850 or 84.5 percent from August 31 – September 13, 2020), the total number of cases is now 261,216.
Of the 3,372 newly reported today, 38.8% of the total was from the National Capital Region. The top 5 “provinces” by newly-announced cases contributed to 62 percent of the pool of cases today.
Nineteen cases were deleted from the case count.
The top 5 regions were NCR, Region IVA, Region III, Region VI and Region VII. NCR and Region IVA still have significant backlogs compared to the other regions.
Summary of the recoveries and fatalities today
- Recoveries: 20,472 reported today, recovery rate 79.5 percent (up)
- Fatalities: 79 reported today, case fatality rate 1.67 percent (up)
- Four regions reported double digit deaths with NCR reporting 23 fatalities followed by Western Visayas with 17, Central Visayas with 12 and Region IVA with 10.
- 72 percent of the reported deaths today occurred in the months of September while the remaining occurred as far back as March.
- 8 cases were previously tagged as recoveries but on further validation were removed from the list (which could only mean they died).
Now with 121 testing facilities, the DoH reports 2,885,672 individuals tested as of September 12, 2020. This is around 2.65 percent of the total population.
THE DATA YESTERDAY
- 2,859,987 individuals tested (~ 2.6 percent of total population) as of September 11, 2020
- September 11, 2020: 3,723 positives from 35,161 individuals tested
- Of the 3,723 positives on September 10, 2020, 65 percent (2,414) were reported from 35 of 41 testing facilities in NCR
- Daily positive rate for September 11, 2020: 10.6 percent (up)
- Cumulative positive rate for September 10, 2020: 10.6 percent (unchanged)
- Total number of confirmed cases: 257,863 (as of September 12, 2020)
- Total cases yesterday (September 12, 2020): 4,935 newly reported (4,034 recent or 81.7 percent from August 30-September 12, 2020)
- Region with highest number of cases for September 12, 2020: NCR – 2,619 (2,025 recent).
- Top regions (with more than 100 cases) for September 12, 2020: NCR, Region IVA, Region III, Region VI, and Region VII
- Regions with single digit report: CARAGA
- Repatriates: 8 new cases (Total: 10,683 as of September 12, 2020).
- Unidentified on a regional level: 35 cases
The unknowns (Cases with NO TAGGED LOCATIONS)
Total unknowns: 69 (1.39 percent down from 2.6 percent the day before)
- Regional level: 35 unknown
- Provincial level: none
- City/Municipality level: 34 (7 from NCR and 7 from Camarines Sur while the rest are from various provinces in the country).
The known (Top 5 Regions)
- NCR: 2,619 newly announced cases (2,025 cases or 77 percent recent)
- More than 100 cases: Quezon City, Manila, Parañaque, Taguig, Valenzuela, Pasay, Makati, Malabon, Caloocan, Pasig, Las Piñas, and Mandaluyong
- 50-100 cases: Navotas, Muntinlupa, Marikina
- 10 to less than 50 cases: San Juan and Pateros
- Untagged location at city/municipality level: 7
- Top provinces by region for the day: Cavite (Region IVA), Bulacan (Region III), Negros Occidental (Region VI), Cebu (Region VII).
- Region IVA was in second: 999 (872 cases or 87.3 percent recent)
- Cavite was on top with 343 cases followed by Laguna, Rizal, and Batangas with triple digits
- Bacoor (in Cavite) led the region on a city/municipality level with 99 cases.
- 24 cities/municipalities reported double digits.
- There was one unknown at this level from Cavite.
- Region III was third: 353 (330 cases or 93.5 percent recent)
- The province of Bulacan maintains the lead with 167 cases.
- Marilao (in Bulacan) had the highest number of cases on a city/municipality level. Ten other cities/municipalities reported double digits.
- No tagged location at the city/municipality level: 5 (one from Pampanga and 4 from Nueva Ecija)
- Western Visayas came in fourth: 282 cases (224 cases or 79.4 percent recent)
- Negros Occidental owned 177 (63 percent) of the cases in the region
- Bacolod City had the most cases (140 of the 177 or 79 percent in Negros Occidental)
- Central Visayas was in fifth for the second straight day: 135 cases (124 cases or 92 percent recent)
- The province of Cebu owned 122 of the 135 cases (90 percent)
- There were 2 unknowns on a city/municipality level – 1 from Negros Oriental and 1 from Bohol.
- 7-day average of new cases as of September 12, 2020: 3,334 cases/day (higher)
- 7-day average of new deaths as of September 12, 2020: 72 deaths/day (lower)
The verdict is in.
Everything changed in 7 days. We were hoping for a continued trend towards “flattening the curve” but some parameters were unsustainable. Of course, much was to be expected but the excitement at reopening the economy when we were seeing better trends accounted for the mixed review this weekend.
There was no significant change in doubling time and 7-day growth rate but the reproduction number is slightly up. Number of cases and deaths rose during the week, but still lower than the 7-day average two and more weeks ago.
- Our positivity rate for testing is much lower than the previous weeks (as evident in the dark orange versus the red hue). Nevertheless, we’re still not testing enough.
- The case fatality rate has plateaued at 1.6-1.7 percent in the country. The increase in deaths the previous days (a report on backlogs), was not good news over the weekend.
- While there are now 119 testing facilities in the country, the number of tests has fluctuated and ranged from 25,000-35,000 a day (more or less). With the positivity rate declining when we’re testing more than 35,000 individuals a day, we will still need to test more.
- Compared to other countries in AustralAsia, the past days have been quite challenging as our data showed a sudden U turn in the number of cases. In the graph below, one can see this recurrent trend two weeks after a stricter quarantine protocol is lifted.
The total global cases marked a new high world record with more than 325,000 cases reported.
Number of deaths were also up with close to 6,000 new deaths with a 7-day average of 5,848 deaths/day.
The United States closes in on the 6.7 million mark, with California, Florida and Texas as top three contributors to the pool of coronavirus cases.
India continues to dominate the global numbers with more than 90,000 cases. It now more than 4.75 million cases. It also led in over-all deaths in the world yesterday with 1,108 newly announced deaths.
Brazil remains in third place but has seen considerable slowing down of the number of new cases and new deaths.
- India continues to top the list with 94,409 new cases
- With 4,935 cases reported yesterday, the Philippines lands in 10th spot in the world rankings with most number of cases.
- India continued to top the most number of deaths for the previous day.
- The game changer was the Philippines that landed for the first time in six place among the top ten death counts in the world with 186 deaths reported yesterday.
The weekend officially begins with the Philippines on the 21st spot in the world ranking to the pool of cases of coronavirus, easing out Germany.
Italy sits on 20th place and has a 7-day average at 1,418 cases/day. It will be a matter of days before we overtake them as there are only 25,000 cases separating the two countries.