After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 2
An aerial view of Cebu, which had more than 100 new COVID cases yesterday after a steady decline in numbers. Photo by Peter Binter on Wikimedia Commons
Culture

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases

Yesterday, the region had 152 cases, 125 of which came from Cebu. Meanwhile, the Visayas (Central, Western, and Eastern) had a total of 382 confirmed cases reported today. BY BENJAMIN CO MD 
BENJAMIN CO MD | Aug 29 2020

Infectious diseases and clinical pharmacology expert Dr. Benjamin Co has been thankfully breaking down coronavirus numbers in his personal blog since the outbreak started. The perspective he provides is informative, and comforting in those who are craving for a clear picture of how we are faring against the virus. Dr. Co will share daily updates and analysis of the Department of Health reported numbers with ANCX. 

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[Disclaimer: Whatever is written here is based on information released by the Department of Health (DoH) at the time of publication. Whatever changes DoH makes in their data later on…well that’s a different story in itself and as they say in their disclaimer: “the total cases reported may be subject to change as these numbers undergo constant cleaning and validation.”]

With 3,647 newly announced cases—never mind that close to 15 percent are backlogs all the way back from March—the country’s total is now at 213,131. The 220,000 mark is a fairly accurate prediction from the UP OCTA group. 

National Capital Region (NCR) contributes 2,030 cases (55.8 percent of the total) today. The other four provinces in the top five are all from Calabarzon: Laguna, Rizal, Cavite, and Batangas. 

There are now 74,611 active cases (up from 71,000 plus cases yesterday) with 1.9 percent severe or critically ill (around 1,425 cases). [Whether they are hospitalized or not is not indicated by the Health Agency.]

Incidentally, 36 cases were removed from the total case count (no reason provided).

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 3

The Health Agency divides its report either as recent (last 14 days) or as “backlogs.”

Of the 3,637 cases today, 3,063 (84.2 percent) are recent (from the period August 16 to August 29, 2020) while the remaining 574 are backlogs. The bulk of the backlogs are from August 1 to 15 (416 cases) and July (113 cases), with cases still being reported all the way back from March for NCR and Region IVA.

The Visayas has 382 confirmed cases reported today with 166 from Western Visayas, 98 from Central Visayas, and 129 from Eastern Visayas. They comprise 12.5 percent of the total cases in the country announced today. 

“Of the 3,637 cases reported today, 2,933 (81 percent) do not have information on date of onset of illness, 145 do not have information on date of specimen collection, while 128 do not have information on both.” (Yet the Department of Health uses the Date of Onset of Illness in their reporting for some inexplicable reason.)

“In cases where date of onset of illness is missing, the date of specimen collection (minus three days) was used as proxy. In cases where both date of onset of illness and date of specimen collection are missing, the report date (minus nine days) were used as proxy.”

There is a new group called ROF, which DoH does not explain. Perhaps it means Returning Overseas Foreign workers?

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 4

There were 655 recoveries, with 16 cases being removed from the recoveries—because they were non-COVID cases ? This brings down the recovery rate further to 63.4 percent (lower than the global average of 69 percent). Perhaps tomorrow there will be more recoveries as they announce major recoveries on a Sunday. 

The spotlight for the day are the continued death reports close to 100 for the fourth straight day. This is not surprising as these are sequelae from the surge in cases in the last two months. It should also not surprise us that this trend will continue even after the number of newly announced cases (hopefully) decline. 

There were 94 reported deaths: 54 from NCR (57 percent), 16 from Calabarzon, 14 from Central Luzon, 4 from Western Visayas, three from Zamboanga Peninsula, and one each from Central Visayas, ROF, and an unknown. 

Of the reported deaths, 81 (86 percent) occurred this month, 12 in July and one in June. 

The case fatality rate is now up at 1.6 percent.

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 5

There are now 112 testing facilities (84 RT-PCR and 28 GeneXpert). Data for August 28 reported on August 29 shows that 2,353,506 individuals (2.2 percent of the population) have been tested. The breakdown will be provided tomorrow.

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 6

Note the gap in the number of “total individuals tested” for the day when compared to the data in the COVID-19 tracker of the health agency. A difference of 63,196 patients.

 

The day yesterday

Testing capacity

Based on the data of August 26, 2020 (latest revised release), a total of 2,290,311 individuals have been tested. There were 3,717 positives from 32,439 individuals tested. The report comes from 96 of 107 laboratories (four laboratories were added). 

The daily positivity rate is adjusted now based on the additional lab results to 11.5 percent (previous 11.3 percent) with the cumulative positive at 10.6 percent.

Of 3,717 positives, 2,443 were from NCR (65.7 percent of total). The daily positivity rate of NCR is up at 14.8 percent from a previous of 14.3 percent and cumulative positive rate remains at 12.5 percent.

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 7

The summary

As of yesterday, the Philippines had 209,543 confirmed cases, with NCR owning 118,004 (56.3 percent). Regions IVA, VII, III, and VI round up the top five. 

There were 283 new cases from the repatriates bringing their total to 9,690 to date (fourth in overall total). 

For August 28, 2020, NCR had 2,097 new confirmed cases with Regions IVA, III, VI, VII, and VIII rounding up the top regions. [Region VIII is added for monitoring purposes. I am curious to know how the government is planning to address the increase in cases in this region.]

Region VIII is in sixth. As mentioned yesterday, the cases from the Visayas region is worrisome because Regions VI, VII and VIII total 504 cases or 12.6 percent of yesterday’s total. 

There was only one case with no tagged location on a regional level.

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 8

 

The unknown

There were 64 unknowns (1.6 percent) with no tagged location on various levels among the top six regions: one with no known region, and the remaining with no tagged locations at the municipality/city level. NCR had the most individuals with untagged location with 58.

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 9

 

The known

Eight cities in Mega Manila reported three digits, with Quezon City (of course) in front with 363 cases. Manila, Caloocan, Makati, Valenzuela, Parañaque, Las Piñas, and Taguig round up the rest. 

The remaining cities reported double digits. 

Pasig, Pasay, Muntinlupa, Marikina, Navotas and Mandaluyong reported 50 or more cases per city. 

San Juan, Malabon and Pateros reported fewer than 50 cases per city. 

Fifty-eight (58) cases had no tagged location on the city level.

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 10

The following provinces had the highest cases for their respective region: Laguna for Region IVA, Pampanga now overtakes Bulacan for Region III, Negros Occidental for Region VI, Cebu is back in fifth only several days after reporting less than 100 cases for Region VII, and finally, Leyte in sixth for Region VIII.

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 11
After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 12

The spotlight today are on Regions VI, VII and VIII that came in fourth, fifth, and sixth overall cases yesterday. 

Region VI reported the most cases among the three regions in Visayas. The provinces of Negros Occidental (107) and Iloilo (88) had the most cases.

On a city/municipality level, the city of Iloilo had the most cases at 69 followed Bacolod with 54 yesterday.

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 13

Region VII is back in the top five with 152 cases. Cebu reported 125 cases. 

On a city/municipality level, Cebu City had the highest number of cases with 40 reported followed by Mandaue with 20. 

At the past week, the numbers in Central Visayas had been on a constant decline and has held its numbers to less than 100 cases a day. Yesterday, the region recorded more than 100 cases once more.

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 14

Region VIII is in sixth. While it may have the fewest cases among the three regions in the Visayas, it also has the smallest population at 4.5 million people in the region. It is also bothersome that the cases are increasing in cities/municipalities in this region with Catbalogan adding 33, Tacloban 21 and other fifth class municipalities like Villareal reporting several cases yesterday. 

Definitely this region should be monitored closely in the upcoming days.

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 15

Calabarzon remains in second spot with the provinces of Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, and Rizal continuing the haul of cases. Region IVA contributed to 15 percent (587) of the total cases yesterday. 

There were 18 cities/municipalities that reported double digits with Calamba, Cabuyao, and Cainta leading reporting more than 30 cases each. 

Five cases had no tagged location at this level.

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 16
After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 17

In third yesterday was Central Luzon with 248 cases, 90 (36 percent) of these from Pampanga. 

Angeles topped the count in the city/municipality level with 25 cases.

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 18
After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 19

The seven-day average for cases yesterday was down to 3,882 cases/day with the seven-day average for deaths up from 50 to 55 deaths/day.

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 20
After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 21

 

The world

With over 270,000 cases yesterday, the world will most likely see the 25 million mark in the next 24. hours. 

The global case fatality rate is at 3.38 percent and recoveries at 69.4 percent. As the number of confirmed cases increase, the fatality and recovery rates slow down. [Recovery rates are not very reliable indicators because they are subjective based on the country’s definition of how and when they consider patients “recovered.”]

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 22

Data from WorldOMeters.info.

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 23

The United States has surpassed the six million mark with California, Texas, and Florida reporting the top three cases yesterday. The US continues to report the most deaths in the world for four consecutive days. 

Brazil remained in second with more than 3.8 million cases but has been seeing a down trend for confirmed cases in the past week with a seven-day average of around 40,000 cases/day.

India remains in third spot globally, but continues to have the highest number of new confirmed daily cases in the world as it continued to report more than 76,000 cases yesterday. It ranked second to the US in number of deaths for the day.

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 24

The top 10 countries contributing to the pool of coronavirus cases for August 28, 2020 were:

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 25

The top 10 countries with highest deaths reported for August 28, 2020 were:

After a consistent decline in COVID numbers, Central Visayas surged with more than 100 new cases 26

While the Philippines may have not been in the top 10 list for new cases and deaths announced yesterday, we were close. 

We ranked 11 in top countries with new announced cases. We were 12th in newly announced deaths, overtaken only by Indonesia. 

We provide a run down on the week that was in tomorrow’s update as it provides us a better picture on how the Philippines is faring in the war against coronavirus as we cross the last two days of August and the General Community Quarantine.

Are we ready to ease the restrictions further as hunger and unemployment continue to take a toll on the country?