Infectious diseases and clinical pharmacology expert Dr. Benjamin Co has been thankfully breaking down coronavirus numbers in his personal blog since the outbreak started. The perspective he provides is informative, and comforting in those who are craving for a clear picture of how we are faring against the virus. Dr. Co will share daily updates and analysis of the Department of Health reported numbers with ANCX.
[Disclaimer: Whatever is written here is based on information released by the Department of Health (DoH) at the time of publication. Whatever changes DoH makes in their data later on…well that’s a different story in itself and as they say in their disclaimer: “the total cases reported may be subject to change as these numbers undergo constant cleaning and validation.”]
With 3,379 confirmed cases today, the Philippines now exceed the 120,000 mark to end with a total of 122,754 cases.
National Capital Region (NCR) contributes to 54.6 percent of the total with 1,846 cases.
In the top five are four provinces from Region IVA: Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, and Quezon.
Eighty five (85) cases were removed from the total cases with no reason provided.
The Health Agency provides a tabular breakdown of the newly reported cases by region and date of onset of illness.
The basis for the 3,379 cases today?
For the period of July 24 to August 6, there were 2,774 “cases reported by region and date of onset of illness.” The rest? 584 from July 1 to 23, four from the month of June, one in May, 11 in the month of April, and five as far back as March.
“Of the 3,376 cases reported today, 3,017 do not have information on date of onset of illness, nine do not have information on date of specimen collection, and 7 do not have information on both.”
“In cases where date of onset of illness is missing, the date of specimen collection (minus three days) was used as proxy. In cases where both date of onset of illness and date of specimen collection are missing, the report date (minus nine days) were used as proxy.”
The number of active cases is now up at 53,734 with only 96 recoveries compared to the continuous surge in confirmed cases. This brings the touted 73 percent recovery rate several days ago sinking further to 54.5 percent. This is much lower than the global recovery rate of 64.2 percent.
There were 24 reported deaths today, bringing the fatality rate to 1.77 percent with total deaths to 2,168 since the start of the pandemic.
Of these deaths, 14 were from Region VII, 9 from NCR, and one from Region VI.
One death was reported this month, four last July, eight in June, eight last May, one far back in April and two all the way back in March.
Fifty-eight recoveries were tagged as duplicates and were removed while five deaths were duplicates as well and removed from the total counts of deaths.
Data for August 6, 2020 (reported on August 7) show there are now 100 accredited testing sites (76 RT-PCR and 24 GeneXpert laboratories) in the country. How many are functional is a totally different question altogether as the number of testing facilities submitting reports on time is a work in progress.
The Philippines has tested approximately 1.44 percent of the total population as it registers 1,577,270 individuals tested.
We will break down the 3,376 cases tomorrow.
The data yesterday
As of August 5, 2020, 1,559,213 individuals have been tested. For that day 2,650 positives were recorded from 21,538 individuals tested with reports from 79 out of 91 (86.8 percent) testing facilities. The daily positivity rate is slightly down at 12.3 percent and the cumulative positivity rate remains unchanged at 9.7 percent.
Notice, however, in the screen capture below that the number of tests being done have gone down compared to the past weeks in spite of the increase in the number of testing facilities.
With 3,561 cases reported, the Philippines remains in the top 10 countries in the world with highest new daily cases.
NCR has now close to 65,000 cases with a total of 64,258. Other regions in the top five are Central Visayas (17,246), Calabarzon (14,023), Central Luzon (3,364), and Western Visayas (1,751).
There are now 5,999 cases with no known region, making up five percent of the total cases reported.
With 2,041 cases in NCR, Mega Manila owned more than 57 percent the total cases. Region IVA was in second with 561 cases, followed by Region VII with 238, Region III with 158 and Region VI with 138.
Except for BARMM that reported only nine cases, the rest of the regions reported double digits.
There were 99 (2.7 percent) individuals classified as unknown on a regional level.
There were 34 (1 percent) cases from repatriates reported.
A total of 353 (9.9 percent) had no tagged location on various levels: 99 with no known region, 94 with no known province from Region III, and the remaining had no known municipality/city.
Among the latter, NCR had 144 cases for the “unknowns,” Laguna had five, two each for Pampanga, Rizal, and Batangas, and one apiece for the provinces of Cavite, Quezon, Negros Oriental, Iloilo, and Negros Occidental.
NCR had 2,041 confirmed cases.
Nine cities had three digits. Surprisingly, Navotas led with 216 cases followed by Quezon City, Taguig, Malabon, Manila, Makati, Parañaque, Pasay and Caloocan.
Cities with double digits but more than 50 cases were Las Piñas, Muntinlupa, and Valenzuela.
Cities with double digits but had 50 or less cases were Pateros, which incidentally had its largest number of cases at 48, overtaking Marikina, Mandaluyong, and San Juan.
Among the other top regions outside of NCR, the following provinces in those regions had the highest cases: Laguna with 222 cases for Region IVA, Cebu with 221 cases for Region VII, Bulacan with 72 cases for Region III, and Negros Occidental with 70 cases for Region VI.
Of the 561 cases reported in Region IVA, there were 105 cases with no tagged locations by city/municipalities.
Among those with identified locations, Calamba (with 46 cases) had the most among the cities/municipalities in Region III.
Other cities/municipalities that saw double digits included: San Pedro, Santa Rosa, Bacoor, Biñan, Cabuyao, Antipolo, Cainta, Cavite, Imus, San Pablo.
The others reported single cases.
A total of 72 cities/municipalities in Calabarzon reported cases.
Region VII was back in third with 238 cases. While Cebu City had the most cases with 66 reported, the following had two digits: Mandaue, Lapu-Lapu, Danao and Talisay.
Thirty-one cities/municipalities reported single digit and there was one with no tagged location.
Region III was fourth with 158 cases.
Angeles, Pampanga reported the most cases with 21. Other cities/municipalities with double digit were: San Jose del Monte, San Fernando, Marilao, and Cabanatuan.
Other cities had single digit with 46 cities/municipalities reporting at least one case.
Two cases had no tagged location.
Region VI was fifth with 138 cases. Two cities had double digits: Iloilo with 34 and Bacolod with 20 cases.
Forty-four cities/municipalities reported at least single digit.
There was one case with no tagged location.
As of yesterday, the seven-day average for cases in the Philippines is at 4,310 cases/day while that for deaths is 24 deaths/day.
With a seven-day average of over 250,000 cases/day, the global total of coronavirus cases is now close to 19.3 million.
There were 6,105 deaths reported yesterday bringing the seven-day global death average to more than 5,800 deaths/day.
The global case fatality rate is lower at 3.72 percent and recoveries even slightly up at 64.2 percent. [Recovery rates are not very reliable indicators because they are subjective based on the country’s definition of how and when they consider patients “recovered.” There are some countries also that do not count recoveries like the U.K and Denmark. Death rates on the other hand, while more definitive of outcomes take a longer time to report and validate.]
Data from WorldOMeters.info.
The United States has passed the five million cases mark with Texas, California and Florida leading the haul.
Brazil remains in second with almost three million total cases and reported the highest number of deaths at 1,226 yesterday.
India remains in third and passes the two million mark with the highest number of cases in the world yesterday.
Colombia now replaces Spain for the ninth spot.
The top ten countries with the highest number of cases yesterday were:
- India – 62,170
- USA – 58,611
- Brazil – 54,801
- Colombia – 11,996
- South Africa – 8,307
- Peru – 7,785
- Argentina – 7,513
- Mexico – 6,139
- Russia – 5,267
- Philippines – 3,561
While the epidemiological data between the Philippines and Indonesia is always compared, differences in testing capacity may be apparent; the Philippines has tested 15,220 people/million while Indonesia has only tested 5,965/million. However, when you look at the population size, Indonesia is three times the size of the Philippines and we have more cases than they do. Our active cases are also almost twice theirs and the total cases per million is 1,089/million in the Philippines compared to 434/million in Indonesia.
Almost a week of MECQ is almost over and we barely have the economic resources to muster another extension.