Infectious diseases and clinical pharmacology expert Dr. Benjamin Co has been thankfully breaking down coronavirus numbers in his personal blog since the outbreak started. The perspective he provides is informative, and comforting in those who are craving for a clear picture of how we are faring against the virus. Dr. Co will share daily updates and analysis of the Department of Health reported numbers with ANCX.
[Disclaimer: Whatever is written here is based on information released by the Department of Health (DoH) at the time of publication. Whatever changes DoH makes in their data later on…well that’s a different story in itself and as they say in their disclaimer: “the total cases reported may be subject to change as these numbers undergo constant cleaning and validation.”]
As in the past four days, National Capital Region (NCR) continues to contribute to more than 70 percent of the total new confirmed cases of the day. Today, it contributed 81 percent of the cases.
The health agency announced today 1,521 new confirmed cases from 62 out of 84 (73.8 percent) laboratories bringing our total to 68,898. Note that more than one-fourth of the laboratories did not submit reports, meaning if we had 100 percent submission rate, this probably would have exceeded 2,000 reported new cases today.
Of the 1,521 cases, 1,237 (81 percent) are from NCR. Three of the provinces rounding up the top five are in the Calabarzon (Region IVA) area: Laguna (51), Cavite (51) and Rizal (34). In the fifth spot? Davao del Sur with 22 cases.
Tomorrow we breakdown the cities that raked in the highest number of new confirmed cases.
The number of active cases continues to climb from 43,160 to 43,991 as there are slow recoveries compared to the overwhelming number of cases over the past days. There were 607 recoveries reported (recovery rate up from 33.3 percent to 33.5 percent) and four reported deaths (case fatality rate lower at 2.66 percent).
Of the four deaths reported today, all occurred in July. Two were from Region VII, one from NCR and one from Region XI.
Seventy nine duplicates were removed from the total case count..
As of July 19, 2020, there are now 91 testing sites (68 RT-PCR and 23 GeneXpert laboratories) in the country. The Philippines has tested one percent of the total population as it registers 1,087,528 individual tests done. (How many repeat tests from previous positive patients or new confirmed cases there are is not indicated.)
The data yesterday
On July 17, 2020, a total to 1,039,994 individuals had been tested (from 1,117,629 samples). The cumulative positivity rate to date is 8.34 percent.
There were 26,873 individuals tested (from 26,968 samples) on July 17, 2020. Of these 2,693 tested positive, for a daily positivity rate of 10.4 percent, slightly lower than the 10.8 percent reported the previous day.
The table below summarizes the comparison of the testing capacity results for July 17. Of the 2,693 positive results in the country, 2,084 or 77.4 percent of all the positive cases for the day were from NCR alone (based on 32/36 labs reporting). Region VII had 241 positive results or 8.9 percent of the total share. Note the daily positive rate for July 17. The Philippines was 10.4 percent while NCR (12.3 percent) and Region VII (14 percent) are higher than the daily and the cumulative positivity rate. Both regions are the basic drivers for the increasing cumulative positivity rate in the country.
Of the 2,241 new confirmed cases yesterday more than 72.5 percent (1,625) were from Metro Manila. For the past days, NCR has been seeing four digit numbers.
All regions had reported cases. Based on yesterday’s data drop, the table below shows the summary of the total number of cases per region and the number of cases on the specific date.
The top regions with positive cases are NCR with over 50 percent of the total cases of the country, followed by Central Visayas with 11,668 cases, and Region IV-A with 5,427 cases as of yesterday.
Yesterday alone, it is the same regions that hauled in the highest numbers. NCR reported 1,625 cases, followed by Region IV-A with 298 cases, and Region III with 69 cases
Of the 1,625 cases from NCR, the following cities had more than 40 cases: Manila (611), Quezon City (265), Mandaluyong (167), Taguig (68), Caloocan (67), Muntinlupa (66), Pasig (62), Malabon (53), Pasay (48), and Valenzuela (45).
Other cities with double digit cases but less than 40 were: Marikina (25), Navotas (24), Las Piñas (26), and Parañaque (31).
Cities that reported single digit were San Juan (9) and Pateros (5).
There was one unidentified case (no location) and one lost stranger from Sta. Ana.
Region IVA replaced Region VII for the second most number of cases by region with a total of 298 cases. (Note that the Department of Health has removed all breakdowns per province. All data provided below are granular and specific based on the data drop of the health agency.)
Leading the pack in Region IV? Biñan with 36 cases; Santa Rosa with 31; Antipolo with 23; Calamba and Dasmariñas with 19 each; and Bacoor with 18 cases.
Central Luzon (Region III) is now in third spot with 69 cases. The cities of San Jose del Monte (Bulacan) had the most number with 14 cases followed by the city of Malolos (Bulacan) with 12 and Marilao (Bulacan) with nine.
Region VII is in fourth with 63 total cases. Cebu City reported more than half of the cases (33).
In fifth is the Davao Region (Region XI) with 35 cases. Both Davao City and Mati reported the highest number of cases with nine apiece.
With 212,071 new cases and 3,792 new deaths reported globally, the seven-day average for cases is now 227,052 and deaths at 5,273 per day.
The next million is predicted in the next 2 days based on the 7 day moving average.
The global case fatality rate is lower at 4.15 percent and recovery drops to 59.65 percent. Recovery rates are not very reliable indicators because they are subjective to the country’s definition of how and when they consider patients “recovered.”
Data from WorldOMeters.info.
The United States is at almost 3.9 million cases with 65,279 cases yesterday. They reported 412 deaths improving significantly the CFR to 3.68 percent. Top three states contributing to yesterday’s haul were Florida (+12,478), Texas (+8,709), and California (+8,116). While New York still leads with the highest number of cases in the US, California is less than 40,000 cases shy of overtaking them, which is estimated to be by the weekend with the current 7 day average of new cases.
Brazil stays in second spot with close to 2.1 million total cases and continues to report the highest death cases in the world with 716 deaths overnight.
India had the second highest cases overnight with 40,243 new cases for a total of 1,118,107 cases.
Top 10 countries that had the highest new cases overnight were:
- USA – 65,279
- India – 40,243
- Brazil – 24,650
- South Africa – 13,449
- Mexico – 7,615
- Colombia – 6,578
- Russia – 6,109
- Argentina – 4,231
- Peru – 4,090
- Saudi Arabia – 2,504
The Philippines was in 14th spot in terms of number of new cases yesterday. Only Bangladesh, Iraq and Iran separated us from the top ten.
With 1,521 cases today, the Philippine officially stays on 30th spot but the gap closes in with the other countries as Indonesia moves up to 24th position overtaking Egypt.
At the rate of our rise in cases, with a seven-day average of around 1,600 new cases/day, a feat that NCR alone will be able to achieve, we most likely will overtake China soon. Fewer than 15,000 cases separate us from China.
Never mind the UP OCTA numbers for the meantime. While other countries are slowing down their case numbers and deaths, the Philippines seems to be playing catch up with the world. We need to curtail that rise now. The healthcare capacity is overburdened in the epicenters of the pandemic.
NCR, a tiny region of less than 700 square kilometers and the tenth most densely populated cities in the world with a population of 14 million (or 14,400 people per kilometer). It is not equipped to bear the brunt of the pandemic.
The outcome of the surge in cases will not be evident until six to eight weeks from the day the report is released especially among the critically ill. And the urban poor live in conditions that promote the propagation of the infection and possibly aggravate the current scenario of how COVID-19 is unfolding during the third quarter storm in the Philippines.