The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 2
A health worker uses a thermal scanner to check a man's temperature. Today, the Philippines reported 2,241 cases. Eloisa Lopez, Reuters
Culture

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported

NCR continues to tally four digit COVID cases while Region IVA overtakes Region VII in second place among Philippine regions. Our recovery rate is also down while there are 58 more deaths recorded today. BY BENJAMIN CO MD
ANCX | Jul 19 2020

Infectious diseases and clinical pharmacology expert Dr. Benjamin Co has been thankfully breaking down coronavirus numbers in his personal blog since the outbreak started. The perspective he provides is informative, and comforting in those who are craving for a clear picture of how we are faring against the virus. Dr. Co will share daily updates and analysis of the Department of Health reported numbers with ANCX. 

--

[Disclaimer: Whatever is written here is based on information released by the Department of Health at the time of publication. Whatever changes the DoH makes in their data later on…well that’s a different story in itself and as they say in their disclaimer: “the total cases reported may be subject to change as these numbers undergo constant cleaning and validation.”]

As in the past three days, National Capital Region (NCR) continues to contribute to more than 70 percent of the total new confirmed cases of the day.

Department of Health (DoH) announced 2,241 new confirmed cases from 74 out of 84 (88 percent) laboratories. This brings our total cases to 67,456. Of the 2,241 cases, 1,625 (73 percent) are from NCR. Three of the provinces rounding up the top five are in the Calabarzon (Region IVA) area: Laguna (115), Cavite (76), and Rizal (75). Cebu is in fourth with 55 reported cases. 

Tomorrow we breakdown the cities in NCR that raked in the highest number of new confirmed cases.

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 3

The number of active cases is up from 41,464 to 43,160 as there are slow recoveries compared to the overwhelming number of cases over the past days. There were 398 recoveries reported (lower recovery rate from 33.8 percent to 33.3 percent) and 58 reported deaths (no change in case fatality rate at 2.71 percent).

Of the 58 deaths reported today, 54 (93 percent) were from Region VII, while regions I, IX, XI, and NCR all had one death each. Thirty-three of the deaths happened in June while 25 in July. The median age of those who died was 63 years old. Thirty-six (62 percent) of those who died were 60 years old and above. 

Eighty-nine duplicates were removed from the total case count..

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 4

As of July 18, 2020, there are now 89 testing sites (67 RT-PCR and 22 GeneXpert laboratories) in the country. The Philippines has tested close to one percent of the total population as it registers 1,058,764 individual tests done. (How many are repeat tests from previous positive patients or new confirmed cases is not indicated.)

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 5

 

The data yesterday

Still on the July 16, 2020 report, with 81 out of 85 (from the previous report of 79 of 85) laboratories reporting, there are now 1,014,149 individuals who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR. The cumulative positivity rate (total number of positive patients since testing began during the pandemic) is up at 8.3 percent (a steady rise of 0.1 percent daily). 

Of 26,853 samples tested in 25,575 individuals tested, there were 2,789 positive results. So far, this is the highest number of samples tested in any given day in the Philippines. The daily positivity rate is lower at 10.8 percent instead of the initial 11.4 percent reported.

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 6
The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 7

The table below summarizes the comparison of the testing capacity results for July 16. Of the 2,789 positive results in the country, 2,136 or 77 percent of all the positive cases for the day were from NCR alone (based on 34/36 labs reporting). Region VII had 298 (11 percent) positive results. Note the daily positive rate of the Philippines is at 10.8 percent while that of NCR (13.7 percent) and Region VII (16.7 percent) are greater than the daily rate and the cumulative positivity rate.

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 8

Of the 2,357 new confirmed cases yesterday, more than 77 percent (1,824) were from the NCR. For the past days, NCR has been seeing four digit numbers. 

Only CARAGA had no reported cases yesterday. Based on region (with more than 40 cases highlighted in yellow), NCR had 1,824 cases, followed by Region IVA with 239, Region VII with 54, Region III with 51 and Region X with 48 cases.

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 9

Of the 1,824 cases from NCR, the following cities had more than 40 cases: Manila (570), Quezon City (450), Mandaluyong (226), Muntinlupa (89), Las Piñas (69), Parañaque (65), Makati (64), Caloocan (54), Malabon (46), Pasay (42), and Pasig (41).

Other cities with double digit cases, but less than 40 were Navotas (27), Taguig (30), Valenzuela (14), San Juan (15), and Marikina (16). 

Only one city reported single digit numbers: Pateros with five cases. One case had an untagged location. 

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 10

Region IVA replaced Region VII for the second most number of cases by region with a total of 239 cases and the breakdown as follows: Laguna 105 cases, Cavite 62, Rizal 39, Batangas 28, and one from Quezon. There were four cases with untagged location. 

Region VII was a distant third with 54 cases. Cebu Province had 23 cases followed by Cebu City with 18, Mandaue with 6, Negros Orientaal with three and two apiece from Bohol and Lapu-Lapu City. 

Region III came in fourth 51 total cases broken down as follows: Bulacan 26, Pampanga 11, Bataan six, Nueva Ecija five, Zambales two, and Tarlac one. 

Region X was fifth with 48 cases. Misamis Occidental took the lead with 25 cases, followed by Cagayan de Oro with 10, Lanao del Norte with eight, Iligan with three, and Misamis Oriental with two cases.

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 11
The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 12

 

The week that was

A total of 11,082 new confirmed cases (or 17.5 percent of the total cases in the Philippines) was reported between July 12-18, 2020 alone. There were 401 deaths reported during this period. They comprised 22 percent of the total deaths since we began recording deaths due to COVID-19. 

But here’s a summary of how we’re doing so far since the start of the pandemic in terms of deaths, cases, testing, and case fatality rate.

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 13

Data from OurWorldInData.org.

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 14

Data from OurWorldInData.org.

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 15

Data from OurWorldInData.org.

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 16

Data from OurWorldInData.org.

The sudden ascent in deaths clearly affected the case fatality rate. 

  • Based on age: 7 percent of the cases were less than 19 years old while 13.9 percent were more than 60 years old. Those between 20-39 years old were responsible for 47.9 percent of the total cases in the Philippines.
  • Based on fatalities: 2.3 percent of deaths were less than 19 years old while 43.1 percent of deaths were 60 years old and above. 
  • The average latency period for reports of DoH were 18.63 days for recoveries and 15 days for deaths. More than 70 percent of recoveries were reported more than eight days after recovery, while 60 percent of deaths were reported more than eight days after dying. 

Based on R naught or reproduction rate for the Philippines, we are currently at 1.03 based on a 5 day lag period computation

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 17

Summarized below is the hospital occupancy as reported by DoH. In black is data on July 2, in green for July 12 and in red for July 17, 2020. There is a rise in bed occupancy in NCR with more hospitals in the danger zone especially in the second district.

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 18

 

The world

With 236,074 new cases and 5,617 new deaths reported globally, the seven-day average for cases is now 224,229 and deaths is 5,295 per day. 

The next million is predicted in the next 3 days based on the seven-day moving average. 

The global case fatality rate is lower at 4.19 percent and recovery rate up at 59.74 percent. Recovery rates are not very reliable indicators because they are subjective to the country’s definition of how and when they consider patients “recovered.”

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 19

Data from WorldOMeters.info.

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 20

The United States is now at over 3.8 million cases with 63,259 cases yesterday. They reported 813 deaths as well. Top three states contributing to yesterday’s haul were Florida (+10,328), California (+8,806), and Texas (+7,495). While New York still leads with the highest number of cases in the US, California is 50,000 cases shy of overtaking them, which is estimated to be in a week if the same trajectory is taken. 

Brazil stays in second spot with 2,075,246 total cases and continues to report the highest death cases in the world with 885 deaths overnight. 

India had 37,407 new cases overnight for a total of 1,077,864 cases. 

With 13,285 cases reported overnight, South Africa snatches the fifth spot from Peru overnight.

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 21

Top 10 countries that had the highest new cases overnight were:

  • USA – 63,259
  • India – 37,407
  • Brazil – 26,549
  • South Africa – 13,285
  • Colombia – 8,560
  • Mexico – 7,257
  • Russia – 6,234
  • Guatemala – 4,233
  • Peru – 3,963
  • Argentina – 3,223

With 2,241 cases today, the Philippine officially is in the 30th spot and overtakes Oman and Belarus in a day. At the rate of our rise in cases, are we bound to overtake China before the end of the month?

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 22

Closely being monitored is Japan as it sees 659 new confirmed cases overnight for a 7-day average of 426 cases/day.

The Philippines moves to the top 30 in the world of total COVID cases with 2,241 reported 23

It will be quite a while before we all get out of this pandemic. 

This has been a very challenging third quarter opening. And we have less than 11 days before it comes to a close. Not only are the citizens affected but more so the healthcare workers who are facing the brunt of this crisis head on. Between life and livelihood, choices must be made. Albeit, difficult ones.