Infectious diseases and clinical pharmacology expert Dr. Benjamin Co has been thankfully breaking down coronavirus numbers in his personal blog since the outbreak started. The perspective he provides is informative, and comforting in those who are craving for a clear picture of how we are faring against the virus. Dr. Co will share daily updates and analysis of the Department of Health reported numbers with ANCX. 

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[Disclaimer: Whatever is written here is based on information released by the Department of Health at the time of publication. Whatever changes the DoH makes in their data later on…well that’s a different story in itself and as they say in their disclaimer: “the total cases reported may be subject to change as these numbers undergo constant cleaning and validation.”]

National Capital Region (NCR) leads the haul among new confirmed cases this week. 

With 1,841 new confirmed cases from 76 out of 84 (90 percent) laboratories, 763 of the cases in the top five cities today are from Metro Manila alone: 441 from Manila, 140 from Quezon City, 96 from Mandaluyong, and 86 from Navotas. Cebu City reported 87 new cases today. 

The breakdown of yesterday’s numbers show a similar pattern in the number of cases being reported by the Health Agency with Manila, Mandaluyong, Quezon City and Makati leading the cities with the most number of cases in a day.

The number of active cases is up from 38,183 to 39,593 as there are lesser recoveries over the past days compared to the start of the week. Yesterday, Department of Health reported 311 recoveries bringing down the recovery rate from 35 percent to 34.5 percent as the number of active cases climb. 

Of the 17 deaths reported today, nine died in July, six in June, one in May, and one in April. Based on location, nine deaths were from NCR (53 percent), four from Region XI (Davao Region), two from Region X, one from Region VII, and one a repatriate. 

The total number of cases is at 63,001 after 106 duplicates were removed from the total case count (three of them being previously recovered were removed from the total count of recoveries). 

The case fatality rate is lower at 2.63 percent (from 2.68 percent) due to the higher number of cases being reported.

A fair reminder: the outcome of cases today will not be felt until four to six weeks later. Outcomes (death or recovery) from the deluge of cases recorded since the last week of June is expected to come at least 4 to 6 weeks from the time of initial report as a new confirmed case. This takes into consideration the latency in reporting of recoveries and deaths from the health agency, which is now averages 14 days.

According to the case bulletin, as of July 16, 2020, there are now 87 testing sites (65 RT-PCR and 22 GeneXpert laboratories) in the country. The Philippines has tested close to one percent of the total population as it registers 1,009,511 individual tests done. (As to how many are repeat tests from previous positive patients or new confirmed cases is not indicated.)

On the COVID-19 tracker, however, there is data for the previous day.

The DoH reports that on July 15, 2020 there are now 987,377 individuals who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR. The cumulative positivity rate (total number of positive patients since testing began during the pandemic) is up at 8.2 percent from a previous 8 percent.

In the same update 88.2 percent (75 out of 85 laboratories) reported that of 21,869 samples tested among 20,575 individuals tested, there were 2,303 positive results. This give a daily positivity rate of 11.2 percent for July 15, 2020, lower than the previous day’s daily rate of 13.52 percent.

If one breaks down the data for Region VII on the same date, 199 were positive out of 1,403 individuals tested. This gives the region a 13.6 percent daily positivity rate, which is a significant drop from the highest daily positivity rate of 45.9 percent reported two weeks ago on June 30, 2020.

Of the 2,498 new confirmed cases yesterday afternoon, more than 75 percent (1,886) were from NCR—the highest reported cases in this region since the start of the pandemic. 

While all regions reported at least two cases, the other regions with more than 40 cases yesterday were Region VII (202), Region IVA (155), Region XI (49), and Region VI (42).

The greatest haul came from NCR. Of the 1,886 cases, Manila had 940 cases, followed by Mandaluyong with 301, Quezon City with 199, and Makati with 114 cases. 

Other cities with double digits included Navotas with 51 cases, Caloocan and Muntinlupa with 44 cases each, Parañaque with 42 cases, Pasig 31, Las Piñas 27, San Juan with 21, Malabon and Marikina with 18 each, Pasay, and Taguig with 16 each.

Valenzuela had five cases and Pateros with two. There were 77 unknown cases (no tagged location). 

Region VII registered 202 new cases yesterday with 71 from Cebu City, 73 from Cebu Province, 35 from Lapu-Lapu, 19 from Mandaue, three from Negros Oriental, and one from Bohol. 

Region IVA ranked third yesterday with 155 total cases. They are distributed as follows: Cavite (57), Laguna (44), Rizal (36), Batangas (13), Lucena City (4), and Quezon (1). 

In Region XI, Davao City had the most number of cases with 42 of the 49 reported cases coming from that city. 

While Region VI reported only 42 cases yesterday (compared to the previous day of 134 cases), Iloilo still had the most with 23 new confirmed cases followed by Negros Occidental with 13. Bacolod and Guimaras reported three cases each. 

Our seven-day average for new cases and deaths? Based on July 16, 2020 data, 1,359 new cases a day and 47 deaths per day. With 14 days left in July, the cases are all over with NCR bearing the brunt of the third quarter storm. Another lockdown may not be wise at this point because the economy will go into a free fall. After all, those who believe this decision is the way to go most likely have the means to last another lockdown. The greater majority of the people residing in the epicenter of the pandemic, however, live hand to mouth and are hurting the most. Any future decision should be a prudent one, taking into consideration the population with the least means to survive an economic tailspin of this magnitude.

The world

The number of cases in the world broke all records with more than quarter of a million new confirmed cases (251,511) and now has a seven-day average of close to 220,000 cases per day. This means that the world will see the next million mark in a few hours. If this trend does not change, the world will see one million cases every four to five days and the world will surpass 15 million cases by next week. 

Total deaths last night was up with 5,858 deaths and the seven-day average is up at 5,023 deaths per day. 

The global case fatality rate is lower at 4.25 percent and recovery rate up at 59.4 percent due to record high number of cases over the past week. Recovery rates are not very reliable indicators because they are subjective to the country’s definition of how and when they consider patients “recovered.”

Data from WorldOMeters.info.

The United States rushes close to the 3.7 million mark with a new record high of 73,388 new confirmed cases (seven-day average: 67,162 cases/day) . They recorded 963 deaths yesterday. Top three states contributing to yesterday’s haul were Florida (+13,965), Texas (+10,243), and California (+9,269). The case fatality rate in the US is now at 3.82 percent with 3,695,581 cases as of this report. 

Brazil stays in second spot as it crosses the next million milestone with 2,014,738 total cases and continues to report the highest death cases in the world with 1,299 deaths overnight. 

India is the third country to cross the million mark with a record breaking high of more than 35,000 cases overnight to bring its total cases to 1,005,871. 

The country that made the headline yesterday? South Africa. With 13,172 cases reported overnight, South Africa moves up from eight to sixth position in the world, overtaking Chile and Mexico.

Top 10 countries that had the highest new cases overnight were:

• USA – 73,388
• Brazil – 43,829
• India – 35,468
• South Africa – 13,172
• Colombia – 8,037
• Russia – 6,428
• Mexico – 6,149
• Peru – 3,862
• Argentina – 3,637
• Saudi Arabia – 2,764

The Philippines was number thirteen in the world yesterday in most number of cases based on the reported 2,498 cases on July 16, 2020. Only Bangladesh (2,733 cases) and Iran (2,500 cases) kept the Philippines from being in the top ten.

While the Philippines remains in overall 33rd place in total number of cases in the world, it will likely overtake Belgium for 32nd spot tomorrow. Indonesia which is in 26th position will likely overtake China by tomorrow as well.

Another country to watch in the Asian region is Japan. 

For the past weeks, the number of cases in Japan has been steadily rising. Yesterday alone, it reported 382 new cases. In terms of number of highest cases, Japan ranks second to the Philippines in the Western Pacific Region (based on WHO classification), overtaking Singapore and Australia.

With the resurgence of cases in several countries due to easing lockdowns and quarantine/isolation measures, everyone is encouraged (if not obligated) to adjust to the “new normal” and take one day at a time instead of rushing out of this pandemic. 

As long as there is still one case in the community, we will never have zero cases. We cannot let our guard down as the world scrambles to look for a relief from the hurting economy. It will still be awhile before vaccines and treatment will be available, if and when there will be successful candidates. In the meantime, patience, discipline, and a really good exit plan by our government is all we have to lean on.