From left: Chel Diokno, Samira Gutoc, Grace Poe, Cynthia Villar and Neri Colmenares.
Culture Spotlight

National surveys vs campus polls: Why parents should listen to their children this election season

Basing purely on the comparison between pollster surveys and campus mock elections, the youth is yearning for a revolution. While older generations gravitate toward celebrities and the establishment, the young are calling for more progressive politicians. It’s time we listened to them.
Felipe F. Salvosa II | May 11 2019

The midterm elections of 2019 will go down in history as the time the Filipino youth staged a collective rebellion and in doing so made an exceptionally strong point about who deserves election to public office.

This is the only way to describe the wide gulf between the national surveys of pollsters SWS and Pulse Asia on one hand, and campus polls and mock elections, on the other.

Pulse Asia survey result, May 3 - 6, 2019.

 

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Villar: number one in the national surveys. Photograph by Junny Roy, ABS-CBN News

This is not to say that the two are comparable. The SWS and Pulse Asia surveys are backed by the quantitative arsenal of the social sciences. Their randomly selected respondents allow for the generalizability of results. Thus, even if the sample size is just 1,800 respondents, their results could reasonably be taken as representative of the 61.8 million registered voters, given a statistical margin of error.

Diokno: leading the polls at the universities. Photograph by Jilson Tiu

Both outfits have been maligned for the way they conduct their polls, but their records speak for themselves. SWS and Pulse have had a good batting average in predicting the winners; in the last midterm elections, in fact, they got the “Magic 12” 100 percent right.

Campus polls are hardly social-scientific. Most are mock elections whose participants were drawn out of sheer convenience or availability. In the survey conducted by campus publications in UST, where I teach, only a quarter of respondents were registered to vote. Thus, campus polls cannot really be used to make generalizations about the campus vote, more so the youth vote.

University of the Philippines Baguio Senatorial Mock Elections 2019. Photograph from UP Baguio University Student Council from Facebook

The pattern of most results from various colleges and universities all over the country strike a defiant tone, however. Three activists are more or less in the top five: human rights lawyers Jose Manuel “Chel” Diokno and Neri Colmenares, and Marawi civic leader Samira Gutoc. Of the three, Diokno is the clear campus favorite, making it to the top of several campus mock polls. One recalls the popularity enjoyed by the late senator Miriam Defensor Santiago in college campuses ahead of the 1992 presidential elections, which she lost by a relative hair strand—874,000 votes—to Fidel Ramos.

Far Eastern University Senatorial Mock Elections 2019. Photograph from FEU Advocate on Facebook

The proportions by which college students are turning out for Diokno can only be described as decisive—60 to even 90 percent, compared with just 50 percent or lower for the top candidates in the SWS and Pulse surveys.

 

Youth vote

Diokno, Colmenares and Gutoc however are doing poorly in the SWS and Pulse surveys and are probably, like Miriam for president in ‘92, going to lose. The three are not just cellar-dwellers in the polls; they have in fact been rejected by SWS and Pulse respondents. In the April Pulse survey, 68 percent of respondents said they were aware of Colmenares, a former party-list representative for the militant Bayan Muna. Diokno and Gutoc’s awareness ratings were 50 and 37 percent, respectively, not bad for first-time candidates for a national post.

But only about 11 percent would vote for Colmenares, according to Pulse. For Diokno and Gutoc, the figures are even lower, at 5.3 percent and 5.9 percent. The three are having a hard time converting their awareness among the general electorate into actual support.

University of Santo Tomas Senatorial Mock Elections 2019. Photograph from The Varsitarian

On campus, however, these three are certified rockstars. In conservative UST where the three progressive Senate bets joined a senatorial forum last month, a survey placed Diokno at No. 1 with 75 percent, followed by Gutoc at 67 percent and Colmenares at 55 percent. In UP Diliman, no surprise: Diokno topped the vote with 84.8 percent, Colmenares got 80.3 percent and Gutoc, 74.1 percent. Are these really “mock” polls? Clearly, the students are not the ones doing a mockery of the electoral system.

De La Salle Univiesity Senatorial Mock Elections 2019. Photograph from Boto Lasalyano, Sulong Pilipino on Facebook

Contrast this with the Pulse top three: Cynthia Villar and Grace Poe, both seeking reelection and are likely 2022 presidential contenders, and ex-senator and ex-Pampanga governor Lito Lapid, an otherwise has-been politician and action star who managed to stay in the radar through a starring role in a popular primetime teleserye. The Pulse awareness ratings of these three hit the ceiling at 100 percent.

Polytechnic University of the Philippines Senatorial Mock Elections 2019. Photograph from PUP Sentral na Konseho ng Mag-aaral on Facebook

What accounts for the gaping differences in voting preferences? Is it wisdom versus youthful naiveté? The campus bets are not reckless choices, however, if one looks at their qualifications and political convictions. The students are resoundingly rejecting not only pro-administration candidates but also most of the incumbents or returnees, with the notable exception of Grace Poe. They want lawmakers who will check the Duterte administration, rather than enable it.

University of the Philippines Manila Senatorial Mock Elections 201. Photograph from UP Manila University Student Council on Facebook
University of the Philippines Diliman Senatorial Mock Elections 2019. Photograph from Bantay Boto 2019 on Facebook

The barrage of mock poll results ahead of Monday’s elections sound like an appeal, almost a desperate cry for help or change to those old enough to vote. They may be too young to decide the nation’s fate, but it's their future that’s at stake.

The youth get how democratic checks and balances are supposed to work. Perhaps the parents and titos and titas, even lolos and lolas, would do well to listen, and perhaps learn from them, for a change. For sure, politics as main fare will make the weekend’s dinner table conversations interesting.

University of the East Senatorial Mock Elections 2019. Photograph from RedWire on Facebook
De La Salle-College of Saint Benilde Senatorial Mock Elections 2019. Photograph from The Benildean on Facebook

Felipe F. Salvosa II heads the journalism program of the University of Santo Tomas. He was reporter and editor for BusinessWorld and a researcher for the Financial Times. He recently left as managing editor of The Manila Times over disagreements on a published story about the Duterte Ouster Matrix

 

Photograph from Jilson Tiu, George Calvelo ABS-CBN News, ABS-CBN News, Junny Roy ABS-CBN and Jonathan Cellona ABS-CBN News.