Increase of Covid cases slowing down—but we need to slow down reproduction rate, too 2
Manila residents get inoculated at the Eulogio Amang Rodriguez Institute of Science and Technology (EARIST) in Sampaloc, Manila on April 3, 2021. Photo by George Calvelo, ABS-CBN News
Culture

Increase of Covid cases slowing down—but we need to slow down reproduction rate, too

We need to bring it to not only 1.0 but less than 0.7 (even lower) in order to provide some order to the chaos we are experiencing. 
BENJAMIN CO, MD | Apr 14 2021

You know the data from the DOH is consistent when it logs in lower numbers on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. The data for Tuesday are collated from tests done on a Sunday. As we all know, not all testing facilities are open daily or 24/7 and are usually closed on Sundays and holidays. This is true as well in other parts of the world. Because the data in other countries in the world are mostly real time, you will notice that the global cases are always lower on Mondays and Tuesdays (because most of the European and North American countries are a day late with respect to Philippine time).

The DOH reports 8,571 new cases Tuesday, or almost a 25 percent drop from the cases in the previous days. This is the usual trend prior to the surge. Tuesdays and Wednesdays would see around 20-25 percent less cases than the average high days from Thursday to Monday. There is a slowing down in the increase of cases but what we need to work on bringing down is the reproduction rate— to not only 1.0 but less than 0.7 (and even lower) in order to provide some order to the chaos we are currently experiencing.

As for the new deaths, 137 were reported. Positivity rate is at 18.3 percent (lower than the previous days) but the hospitals remain inundated with patients. ICUs are now filled to the brim in many public and private hospitals in the National Capital Region. Isolation facilities have been added in some cities but not enough for the rising cases in those localities.

The distribution of the “ayudas” and reports of some disorganized vaccination sites should be addressed by the individual local government units because these propagate super spreader events. While the intention to provide assistance and immunization is vital, it should be a well-thought-out plan (I thought that there was enough time to practice this while they were all waiting for the arrival of the vaccines). It seems such a mess in some areas with people jockeying to get vaccine slots or hoping to be part of the QSL (quick substitution list). Efficiency in these events need to get addressed promptly in order not to affect the gains of the current quarantine status.

Increase of Covid cases slowing down—but we need to slow down reproduction rate, too 3

In the Tuesday data drop, NCR reports 3,949 new cases or 46 percent of the total cases in the country. Region IVA has 1562 cases and Central Luzon 1,116 cases. These three regions alone account for 77 percent of the total cases in the country. Cagayan Valley hauled 556 new cases, while CAR contributed 282.

Increase of Covid cases slowing down—but we need to slow down reproduction rate, too 4

Quezon City owns 1,053 of the 3,949 cases in NCR or 27 percent of the total new cases. The City of Manila is in second with 596 cases. Pasay City, Marikina, Valenzuela, Malabon, Pateros, and Navotas reports fewer cases than the previous days. Thirteen of 17 LGUs are among the top 20 cities with most cases. 

Increase of Covid cases slowing down—but we need to slow down reproduction rate, too 5

On a provincial level, Cavite continues to lead with 539 cases followed by Rizal with 511. Pampanga, which is in GCQ status has 462 cases, higher than erstwhile leader Bulacan which has 397 cases and is in MECQ status. 

Increase of Covid cases slowing down—but we need to slow down reproduction rate, too 6
Increase of Covid cases slowing down—but we need to slow down reproduction rate, too 7