The Philippines surpasses the 840,000 mark in total Covid cases 2
The Grotto of Our Lady of Lourdes in San Jose Del Monte, Bulacan remains closed amid the enhanced community quarantine in the "NCR plus". Photo by Ramon F. Velasquez on Wikimedia Commons
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The Philippines surpasses the 840,000 mark in total Covid cases

OCTA Research says the reproduction rate has decreased, but this simply means the increase of new cases have slowed down   
BENJAMIN CO, MD | Apr 09 2021

Today as Filipinos recall the Fall of Bataan, or Araw ng Kagitingan, the Philippines records 401 deaths, the highest number of deaths posted in a single day since the Covid pandemic began. Majority of the day’s 12,225 new cases come from NCR, followed by CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Cagayan Valley and CAR. While the reproduction rates are lower this week at 1.24, the total number of new daily cases are plateauing only at the higher boundaries. Which means that if, for example, there are 12,500 daily cases but a Rt of 1.0, we will still have 12,500 daily cases in subsequent days. It will take time for the number of cases to significantly drop because the reproduction rate is still above 1.0.

As the Philippines surpasses the 840,000 mark in total cases, it also reports that our active cases are now close to 180,000.

The positivity rate is still above 20 percent and the hospital ICU beds and isolation beds are past critical level in occupancy.

The Philippines surpasses the 840,000 mark in total Covid cases 3

The OCTA Research Monitoring Update report, giving the public an overview of the current situation after 2 weeks of ECQ, says the reproduction rate has decreased, but it simply means the new cases have simply slowed down in the increase and not decreased in actual numbers.

During the period, the NCR is averaging lower tests per day (19 percent less than the average compared to the week before ECQ). This means we may not be seeing the complete picture of what’s going on.

The Philippines surpasses the 840,000 mark in total Covid cases 4
The Philippines surpasses the 840,000 mark in total Covid cases 5

The table below shows the regions in the Philippines with the most new cases for the week April 2-8, 2021, the growth rate of cases in the week, hospital bed occupancy and ICU bed occupancy.

The regions with the highest single week growth rate are BARMM (133 percent), Ilocos (119 percent), and CAR (113 percent). Moderate growth is seen in Cagayan Valley, Western Visayas, Bicol Region, Zamboanga Peninsula and CARAGA. The greatest impact of the surge is on the ICU bed occupancy in the NCR, CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Cagayan Valley and CAR – the top 5 regions in the country with most cases.

The Philippines surpasses the 840,000 mark in total Covid cases 6
The Philippines surpasses the 840,000 mark in total Covid cases 7

The top 20 cities with most cases are tabulated below and show that only Muntinlupa City in Mega Manila is seeing the highest growth rate at 68 percent, while many of the LGUs have shown a large decline in growth rate (note in blue the negative decline). ICU occupancy is already filled up to 80-100 percent in 15 of the 20 top LGUs. 

The Philippines surpasses the 840,000 mark in total Covid cases 8