Medical frontliners from the San Juan Medical Center get inoculated with the Sinovac vaccine at the Filoil Flying V Arena on March 6, Photo by George Calvelo, ABS-CBN News

Growth in number of Covid cases in NCR shows significant decline

However, among top 20 LGUs, Muntinlupa and Dasmariñas see a significant rise.
BENJAMIN CO, MD | Apr 07 2021

As mentioned here before, Tuesdays and Wednesdays regularly announce lower numbers. (Data on Sunday is released Tuesday and data on Monday is released Wednesday. Usually lower tests are done on these days because the testing centers are closed.) Today, the DOH reports 6,414 new cases, saying the reason the numbers are low is because the samples submitted for testing were also fewer last April 5. 

The bad news is the number of deaths. From 1.7 percent case fatality rate, we now jump to 1.72 percent as 242 new deaths are reported today, bringing the total deaths past 14,000.

While the positivity rate is a bit lower at 18.2 percent, this is still relatively high for the country.

The healthcare capacity remains overwhelmed, with ICU beds at 79 percent capacity and isolation beds at 70 percent – both past the critical mark.

The growth in number of cases considerably declined in the National Capital Region, as reported by the OCTA group in their weekly Monitoring Update.

The reproduction number in the NCR decreased to 1.43 for the week of March 31 – April 6, while the reproduction number in the Philippines was up at 1.45. The average number of new COVID-19 cases reported per day in the NCR was 5,146 over the past week, with a one week growth rate of just 3 percent. During this period, the NCR is averaging 24,000 tests per day, 17 percent lower than the previous weeks average. This means that we are not seeing the complete picture with respect to growth rate and trends, and once data comes in this week, there will be corrections in the findings.

OCTA Research, Philippine COVID-19 Update, April 7, 2021 

The top ten regions/provinces in the country with new cases are provided in the table below. While new cases have decreased significantly in Cebu, cases in Isabela and Benguet have increased significantly. The ICU capacity in various regions and provinces in the top 10 regions/provinces have breached the critical level capacity (70 percent) set by DOH.

In the top 20 cities with highest cases in the Philippines, notice that many LGUs are seeing a slowing down in the growth rate. The highest growth rate has shifted to some LGUs which have never seen significant rise in cases. These are: Muntinlupa City (48 percent) with the highest growth rate in all LGUs in the country followed by Dasmariñas City in Cavite (42 percent). ICU and bed occupancy are mostly past 80 percent in 13 of the 20 top cities.