Parañaque logs 222 Covid cases Saturday. Photo of the National Shrine of Our Mother of Perpetual Help in Baclaran, Parañaque by Elmarc Lim, Redemptorist VP Media via ABS-CBN News

PH predicted to continue reporting a 7,500 to 8,500 case range in next few days

The first surge last year took us an average of 7 weeks to climb. This new one took us two     
BENJAMIN CO, MD | Mar 21 2021

The OCTA Research group had predicted that our Covid numbers hitting the 8,000 range is highly likely to occur considering the positivity rate averages 15 percent daily for the past few days. The Philippines is now tracking a higher positivity rate as a nation at 8 percent on the average. In short, it was inevitable that the 8,000 mark would be reached or breached. With rising daily positivity rates and a large active cases pool, today marks the highest number of new cases reported in the Philippines. And the numbers are expected to rise in the upcoming days and weeks.

In Saturday’s report, the DOH announced 7,999 new cases, 30 new deaths, and 597 new recoveries (which will really not matter considering that the active cases are now more than 80,000 and will continue to swell disproportionately).

With a 14.6 percent positivity rate, we will continue to report cases in the range of 7,500-8,500 the next few days, depending on the extent of tests done.

Of the 7,999 new cases (which should really be more than 8,000 because 6 laboratories did not submit data), the granular data continues to show the NCR being the epicenter of the pandemic in the country with more than half the new cases (4.059) coming from Mega Manila.

Notice the difference in the graph of the DOH below (as of March 18, 2021). The first surge last year took us an average of 7 weeks to climb. The highest peak was during the week of August 6-12, 2020. And it took us more than 10 weeks to stabilize the weekly new cases. CALABARZON’s share is now up at 17 percent with 1,348 new cases followed by Central Luzon with 828 (10.4 percent). These contiguous three regions account for more than three-fourths of the total cases in the country.

In the NCR alone, all LGUs show a significant rise in daily cases with Quezon City contributing to almost 900 cases or 21.4 percent of the cases in Mega Manila. The City of Manila has 689 and Pasay City 329 new cases. The cities of Makati, Pasig, Caloocan, Parañaque, and Marikina each have more than 200 cases, while the cities of Valenzuela, Mandaluyong, Taguig and Las Piñas reported more than 100 cases each. Fourteen of the 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20 cities with most cases in the country today. 

A new record for the top 10 provinces was marked today when all ten reported triple digits or more than 100 cases each. Bulacan led with 534, followed by Cavite with 493 new cases. 

The second surge is markedly different from the first in that it took us only 2 weeks to reach numbers this high. The incline is steep. And a steep incline is indicative that we have not even peaked yet. With the current trend, we will need to exercise more restraint when deciding to go out for nonessential matters.