Commuters head to a bus loading and unloading area along Agham Road in Quezon City on October 15, 2020. Photo by Mark Demayo, ABS-CBN News/File

With more than 4,500 new cases, there is now a definite surge of Covid cases in the PH

The last time we saw a number like this one was more than six months ago 
BENJAMIN CO, MD | Mar 13 2021

[All local data are information downloaded from the Data Drop of the Department of Health. The author does not own any of the information except the analysis of all data. Global data are referenced properly from, (European CDC), World Health Organization (, and the New York Times. Where appropriate, additional information may be culled from other references or health agencies.]


Summary for the day

  • It’s a grim milestone as the DOH reports more than 4,500 new cases (4,578). The last time we saw cases this high was more than half a year ago, August 30, 2020.
  • The total number of active cases are up 8.5 percent with 52,012 active. The positivity rate is trending at close to 11 percent.
  • With 87 new deaths, the case fatality rate is steady at 2.08 percent because of the surge of new cases.
  • The NCR Rt is up at 1.86 and continues to climb with the increasing numbers.
  • The March 12, 2021 OCTA Research Group summary report shows that there’s a definite surge in cases in the country, most especially in the National Capital Region. From a reproduction rate of 1.66 last week, the Rt is now up two notches at 1.86 (and will most likely climb to 2.0) as the NCR tests a new high of 2,000 daily new cases.
  • Among cities/municipalities that are hotspots in the country, the top 20 are seen in the table below. Note the highlighted bars as areas of concern.

While the attention has been focused in the NCR, cases have also been rising in some areas in CALABARZON and Central Luzon, specifically in Antipolo and Cainta in Rizal, Bacoor and Imus in Cavite, and Santa Maria in Bulacan. Baguio City had an increase, while Cebu City, Lapu Lapu and Davao City all had downtrends. Twelve NCR LGUs were in the top 15. Hospital occupancy exceeded 70 percent in Quezon City, Makati and Taguig, while ICU bed capacity exceeded 70 percent in Taguig, Pasig, Mandaluyong, Las Piñas, Muntinlupa and San Juan. [Note that hospital occupancy is not reflective of total hospital capacity but only the beds/wards/units allocated for COVID-19 patients. Private hospitals dedicate a maximum of 30 percent of its bed capacity for COVID patients.]

Philippine COVID-19 UPDATE, OCTA Research Group Monitoring Report, March 12, 2021.

  • On a more granular level, the following top 30 barangays had the most new cases for the week of March 5-11, 2021. Those highlighted in yellow show those with significant increases in their number of cases. Those in blue showed a significant decline in new cases.
  • So here’s the granular data. It was NCR accounting for 47 percent of the total cases in the country today. But look who’s back in the top regional haul similar to the July-August saga – CALABARZON, Central Visayas, Central Luzon, CAR and Cagayan Valley. All these regions together comprise 89 percent of the total cases in the country.
  • There were 25 ROFs in today’s case count and 24 from unknown regions but had positive results.
  • In the NCR, Quezon City is close to 500 new cases followed by Pasay City, Manila, Pasig, Makati, Taguig, Caloocan, Marikina, and Parañaque who all reported triple digits. All LGUs saw an increase in number of cases. 13 of 17 LGUs are in the top 20 cities with highest cases in the country.
  • Eleven of the top 20 have more than 100 cases, with Quezon City leading the haul.
  • On a provincial level, Cebu continues to dominate the provinces. However, only 150 new cases were reported from its capital Cebu City.

The World (March 11, 2021)

  • With close to 500,000 new cases (478,618), the world now passes the next million milestone and has more than 119 million coronavirus cases recorded.
  • A total of 9,713 new deaths are reported keeping the global case fatality rate unchanged at 2.22 percent.
  • Brazil continues to lead among countries with the most number of new cases and new deaths in the world. With the current numbers, Brazil will most likely overtake India for the second spot in the world by tomorrow and the United States is seen to mark its 30 millionth case very soon.
  • As the Philippines continues its upward trajectory for cases, Indonesia, reeling from a surge in cases in December 2020 has started to see a large decline in daily new cases including their 7-day average.