[All local data are information downloaded from the Data Drop of the Department of Health. The author does not own any of the information except the analysis of all data. Global data are referenced properly from Worldometers.info, Ourworldindata.org (European CDC), World Health Organization (who.int), and the New York Times. Where appropriate, additional information may be culled from other references or health agencies.]
UPDATED MARCH 07, 2021
Summary for the day
- The DOH reports 3,276 new Covid cases, which makes it the third straight day with a case count that’s beyond the 3K mark. The positivity rate is up at close to 10 percent, which means we’re not testing enough and the numbers may actually even be higher.
- There are 51 new deaths reported.
- The number of active cases is the highest seen so far with more than 6.1 percent active cases (36,276). This can only mean that with the surge, there will be more active cases week in and week out.
- The increasing reproduction number in NCR from 1.5 to 1.66 in a matter of three days is alarming. The OCTA Research Group released its report for March 07, 2021 and shows the 7-day moving average from January 23 to March 6, 2021. The surge in cases in the last two weeks places Mega Manila in a precarious spot on how to deal with this situation.
While Valenzuela showed a decrease in new COVID-19 cases compared to the previous week, all NCR LGUs in the list had upward trends. In particular, very short two-week increases of more than 40 percent rise per week are observed in Quezon City, Makati, Taguig, Parañaque, Caloocan and Mandaluyong. Four LGUs in NCR were still classified as high risk according to attack rate: Pasay (with a very high 30 per 100,000 daily attack rate), Makati, Malabon and Navotas, although the trends in Malabon and Navotas have slowed down.
Makati with three hospitals, exceeded 80 percent hospital utilization for both beds and ICUs. Quezon City, Taguig, Malabon, Muntinlupa, and Pateros had more than 60 percent hospital bed occupancy. Las Piñas and Mandaluyong exceeded 70 percent ICU bed occupancy.
Cebu City, Lapu Lapu and Mandaue are now on a downward trend. New cases in Davao City decreased.
Baguio City is now on an upward trend in new cases.
Philippine COVID-19 Update, OCTA Research Group, March 7, 2021
- On a more granular level, the following barangays in NCR had the highest number of cases (percentage rise compared to the previous week in parenthesis). There are five barangays in Makati in the top 20 list, while Pasig and Quezon City each had three barangays on the list.
The World (March 06, 2021)
- With 405,509 new cases yesterday, the world has officially more than 117 million coronavirus cases.
- The 7,685 new deaths bring the total number of Covid deaths since the pandemic began close to an inch of 2.6 million.
- Among the top 10 countries with highest cases, four countries are seeing an upward trajectory: Brazil, Italy, France and Turkey. In Asia, one country is seeing the worst surge as other countries are seeing a downtrend – the Philippines.
The week in review
- It was a grim week with surging cases in the Philippines, as the Department of Health also confirmed the presence of the variants of South Africa (B.1.135) and UK (B.184.108.40.206).
- The 7-day average is up at close to 2,500 new cases/day, with a national reproduction rate now at 1.47, almost 50 percent of the total reported cases coming from the NCR, an increase in positivity among individuals that get tested, and displacing Pakistan for the 30th rank in the world.
- The graph from the European CDC below shows the surge in new cases in the country. Again, while deaths may see an erratic trend, everyone is reminded that people who come down with COVID-19 and get moderate or severe illness, take a long course. The more severe the course, the higher the likelihood of poorer outcomes. But the story does not begin with just getting COVID 19. Economic resources (as economic managers would argue for opening the economy) are usurped because healthcare resources are used up quickly as well.
- The increase in cases and positivity rate demonstrates also that we are not testing enough at this point. With over 200 testing facilities in the country, more testing and contact tracing needs to be done. And this should be done at the government’s expense. People will not shell out money to get tested correctly.
- This week was a relatively good week for many other countries who experienced the worst of the pandemic. Illustrated below are the recent data of the ten top countries with highest cases, where Italy, France, Brazil and Turkey are seeing an upward trend in cases. In Asia, our neighboring countries including embattled Indonesia and Malaysia are seeing a downtrend. Only the Philippines is on an upward trajectory.