The City of Manila reported 161 Covid-19 cases today. Photo from ABS-CBN News
Culture

NCR reports 866 new Covid cases with City of Manila and QC bringing in highest case counts

The country posted 2,037 new cases and 4 new deaths
BENJAMIN CO, MD | Mar 01 2021

[All local data are information downloaded from the Data Drop of the Department of Health. The author does not own any of the information except the analysis of all data. Global data are referenced properly from Worldometers.info, Ourworldindata.org (European CDC), World Health Organization (who.int), and the New York Times. Where appropriate, additional information may be culled from other references or health agencies.]

UPDATED MARCH 01, 2021

Summary for the day

  • Because it was a weekend, the reported new cases were slightly lower (but nevertheless above 2,000). The DOH announced 2,037 new cases and 4 new deaths, bringing the case fatality rate slightly lower to 2.13 percent.
  • With the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, specifically SinoVac, the question is: will the 600,000 donated doses be enough to quell the rising cases? Note that these cases are already ongoing and community transmission is higher, with higher positivity rates from the daily testing being conducted. Unless the COVID-19 vaccine program is sustained and there will be more people getting immunized daily this increase in new cases will not be addressed.
  • NCR grabbed more than 42 percent of the total cases in the Philippines Monday. The City of Manila, Quezon City, Pasay City, and Makati led the haul. These four cities accounted for 55 percent of the total cases in Mega Manila for the day.
  • Fourteen of the 17 LGUs in NCR landed in the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases. A record breaking event.
  • On a provincial level, it’s still Cebu leading among the provinces with 303 of the 315 cases in Central Visayas. Cebu City with 138 new cases accounts for 46 percent of the cases in the province.
  • Updated OCTA Research Group reports the Rt in NCR is up at 1.5 “as the region registered 1,022 new COVID-19 cases on February 27.”

The 4-day average was 942, while the 7-day average was 762 (per day), which is an increase of 61 percent from the previous week and 94 percent from two weeks ago. This pattern of increase is similar to the patterns observed in Cebu City, Mountain Province and Benguet, where the SARS-Cov2 variants were identified.

The positivity rate in NCR increased to an average of 6 percent over the past 7 days, based on 18,000 PCR (average) tests per day.

Philippine COVID-19 Update, OCTA Research Report, March 01, 2021

While Cebu City still had the most number of new COVID-19 cases averaging 209 per day for the past 7 days, its upward trend has slowed down as the reproduction number in Cebu City decreased to 1.38.

In NCR, steep upward trends in new COVID-19 cases were observed in Pasay, Quezon City, Manila, Makati, Malabon, Taguig, Parañaque and Navotas, while Valenzuela, Caloocan, and Las Piñas had a smaller increase in new cases.

In Pasay, Makati, Malabon and Navotas, the daily attack rate had exceeded 7 per 100,000, which classifies these LGUs as high risk areas according to DoH guidelines. Pasay had the highest attack rate at 21.75 per 100,000.

In CAR, the number of new COVID19 cases in Baguio City, La Trinidad and Tabuk, Kalinga, also had upward trends, while the daily attack rate in these three LGUs were above 7 per 100,000.

Philippine COVID-19 Update, OCTA Research Group, March 01, 2021

  • Projection for NCR for the next month is provided with the blue indicating the current Rt of 1.5 and the green bar using Rt of 1.2.

Under the current trend, the number of new COVID-19 cases per day will increase from its current daily value of 770 to 2,200 by the end of March 2021, unless the spread of the virus is curbed.

Reducing the reproduction number will not decrease the number of new COVID19 cases but will control its increase to 1,000 daily cases by end of March, for a total of 260,000 cases in NCR, or an 11 percent increase compared to the current total.

On a national scale, there are currently 574,247 COVID-19 cases and 12,289 deaths. If this trend continues and the national reproduction number remains at around Rt~1.2m the country is projected to have 665,000 COVID-19 cases and 14,000 deaths by end of March. If the Rt is reduced to 1.0, the number of COVID-19 cases is projected to be 640,000 by month’s end with 13,500 deaths.

If the Rt continues to increase and new COVID-19 cases continue to escalate especially in the NCR, the projection is 715,000 COVID-19 cases and 15,000 deaths by end of March.

Philippine COVID-19 Update, OCTA Research Group, March 01, 2021

The World (February 28, 2021)

  • There were 311,706 new cases added globally as the weekend regularly reports 20-30 percent less cases.
  • A total of 6,169 new deaths were reported. The global case fatality rate holds at 2.22 percent.