Health officers prepare an isolation room amid the Covid-19 pandemic in Bandung, West Java Province, Indonesia, January 12, 2021. Photo by Antara Foto/M Agung Rajasa/via Reuters
Culture

Asian countries are showing a decline in new Covid cases, except the PH which is seeing a surge

Globally, even countries in the top 10 are showing a marked decrease in their Covid numbers   
BENJAMIN CO, MD | Mar 01 2021

[All local data are information downloaded from the Data Drop of the Department of Health. The author does not own any of the information except the analysis of all data. Global data are referenced properly from Worldometers.info, Ourworldindata.org (European CDC), World Health Organization (who.int), and the New York Times. Where appropriate, additional information may be culled from other references or health agencies.]

UPDATED FEBRUARY 28, 2021

Summary for the day

  • The last day of February had less cases than previous days, with the DOH announcing 2,113 new cases and 29 new deaths.
  • The bad news? The national reproduction number is up at 1.22 (higher than the 1.01 one week ago).
  • It was the NCR that bore down on the numbers with more than 900 new cases, followed by CALABARZON, Central Visayas, Central Luzon and CAR, all with triple digit cases.
  • On a provincial level, it was still Cebu that led in number of cases but at a significantly lower number today. Cebu City reported only 82 cases, pushing them down to sixth spot among cities with most number of COVID-19 cases.
  • The top 5 cities with the highest number of cases all came from NCR with Quezon City leading the pack with 181 new cases, followed by Pasay City (180), City of Manila (112), Makati (84) and Taguig (82). Twelve cities from NCR are in the top 20 cities/municipalities for today.
  • Updated OCTA Research Group reports the Rt in NCR is now higher at 1.51 with a 3-day average of cases at 955 cases/day. The alarming rise is driven by some cities in Mega Manila, that is seeing a higher attack rate and higher positivity rates in testing. 
  • The breakdown for top 20 cities in the country shows Pasay City and Lapu-Lapu City as areas of major concern.

While Cebu City still had the most number of new COVID-19 cases averaging 222 per day for the past 7 days, its upward trend has slowed down as the reproduction number in Cebu City decreased to 1.38. Upward trends, high attack rates and high positivity rates were observed in Cebu City, Mandaue and Lapu Lapu.

In NCR, steep upward trends in new COVID-19 cases were observed in Pasay, Manila, Makati, Malabon, and Navotas, while Quezon City, Valenzuela, Caloocan, Taguig, Parañaque, and Las Piñas also had notable increases in new cases.

In CAR, the number of new COVID-19 cases in Baguio City and Tabuk, Kalinga, also has upward trends, while the daily attack rate of these two LGUs also increased above 7 per 100,000.

Philippine COVID-19 Update, OCTA Research Group, February 28, 2021

  • Projection for NCR for the next month is provided with the blue indicating the current Rt of 1.5 and the green bar using Rt of 1.2.

Assuming that the reproduction number remains at Rt=1.5…the number of new COVID19 cases per day will increase from its current daily average of 770 to 2,200 by the end of March 2021. Moreover, the total number of cases in NCR will have increased to 280,000 by the end of March, from its current number of 234,754, an increase of 19 percent.

Note that in the midst of the July-August 2020 surge in NCR, the average number of new daily cases in NCR on the first week of August was 2,280. While the goal of pandemic management is to reduce the reproduction number to Rt=1.2 by active health campaign, strict implementation of the current quarantine protocols, an initial vaccination rollout and more localized (i.e., barangay level) lockdowns, reducing the reproduction number will not decrease the number of new cases but will control its increase to 1,000 daily cases by end of March, for a total of 260,000 cases in NCR, or an 11 percent increase compared to the current total.

If the reproduction number is reduced to Rt=1, the total number of COVID19 cases is projected to be 640,000 by month’s end, with 13,500 deaths. On the other hand, if the reproduction number continues to increase and new COVID-19 cases continue to escalate especially in the NCR, the projection is 715,000 COVID-19 cases and 15,000 deaths by the end of March.

Philippine COVID-19 Update, OCTA Research Group, February 28, 2021

The World (February 27, 2021)

  • There were 387,697 new cases added globally, with the continuing trend for slowing down in coronavirus cases in most parts of the world.
  • A total of 8,048 new deaths were reported. The global case fatality rate holds at 2.22 percent.

The week in review

  • New cases spiked up by 25 percent from over a week ago in the Philippines, including the positivity rate for COVID-19 testing. Reproduction numbers are also up at 1.22 nationally and 1.51 for the NCR, which is now seeing quadruple digits once again.
  • Globally, note the marked decline in cases among the top 10 nations contributing to the pool of COVID-19 cases in the world.
  • In Asia, the same trend is being seen, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan and South Korean. Only the Philippines is seeing the surge in numbers.