[All local data are information downloaded from the Data Drop of the Department of Health. The author does not own any of the information except the analysis of all data. Global data are referenced properly from Worldometers.info, Ourworldindata.org (European CDC), World Health Organization (who.int), and the New York Times. Where appropriate, additional information may be culled from other references or health agencies.]
UPDATED FEBRUARY 21, 2021
Summary for the day
Yesterday’s numbers were concerning. More than 50 percent of the 2,240 new cases came from 2 regions – NCR with 583 cases and Central Visayas with 540. With a positivity rate at more than 6 percent in the past week, numbers are on an upward trend. The 239 deaths were mostly fresh (220 occurring during the period of January to February 2021) and 137 of them being initially tagged as recoveries but were later recognized as deaths.
On the spotlight is the National Capital Region whose Rt (reproduction number) is up at 1.22 (based on a 7-day moving average) from 1.00 two weeks ago.
The average number of new COVID-19 cases in NCR over the past three days is 563 per day, an increase of 45 percent compared to the previous daily average of 388 new cases from the previous 7 days.
The positivity rate in NCR increased to 5 percent over the past 7 days, based on an average of 16,000 PCR tests per day in NCR. The last time the positivity rate in NCR exceeded 5 percent was November 2020.
Philippine COVID-19 Update, OCTA Research Group, February 21, 2021
The table below shows the cities that are seeing record highs. This is led by Pasay City with a 203 percent increase in daily new cases followed by Malabon with 166 percent increase, and Las Piñas with 116 percent increase. Most LGUs in NCR had upward changes varying from 20-70 percent. Valenzuela had no change and only three (of 17) LGUs – Pateros, Navotas and Muntinlupa – registered a decrease in new cases. The positivity rate in Marikina and Parañaque remained high.
The Sunday summary provides the week in review.
- With 1,888 new cases and 20 new deaths reported by the DOH today, the Philippines now has more than 561,000 COVID-19 cases and over 12,000 deaths (more than 1,000 monthly deaths from this disease) over the past year.
The Philippines (February 20, 2021)
- Six regions – NCR, Central Visayas, CALABARZON, CAR, Western Visayas, and Central Luzon – registered triple digits totaling 1,782 of the 2,240 cases (80 percent) in the country yesterday.
- In the National Capital Region, some cities are seeing rising numbers particularly Pasay City. Ten of the 17 LGUs in Mega Manila were among the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases for the day. Quezon City, Manila, Pasay, Taguig, Makati, and Pasig accounted for almost 70 percent of the total cases.
- On a provincial level, the province of Cebu continued to dominate with 525 new cases (comprising 97 of the total cases in Central Visayas). Cebu City accounted for more than half of the cases in the province of Cebu.
February 20, 2021 (The World)
- The usual weekend downtrend saw 348,023 new cases and 8,409 new deaths globally. This continuing downtrend in both cases and deaths is welcome news for many countries that have had economies and healthcare systems struggling to survive during the pandemic.
- The case fatality rate globally is steady at 2.21 percent.
- The surprise of the day in the global rankings was the entrance of the Philippines into the roster for top ten countries with highest deaths reported in a single day. It ranked eighth, yesterday, reminiscent of its position last September 14, 2020.
The week in review
- All the numbers are up – from total new cases, to new deaths, to 7-day averages for cases and deaths, to reproduction rates and positivity rates in the Philippines. This, in just a week.
- Note that testing capacity has dipped over the week and increased positivity rate over the acceptable 5 percent margin was observed within the same period. This means we need to ramp up testing to more than 40,000-50,000 per day.
- While the number of cases seemed to hold steady, we are actually seeing an increase in the number of cases, mainly driven by NCR and Central Visayas. This is also noted in new deaths.
- Among the top 10 countries with most cases in the world, it is Brazil that stayed flat. In Asia, it is the Philippines seeing the same phenomenon.
- The vaccines have been rolled out in several countries and Bangladesh, a country of roughly 160 million people have suddenly overtaken Indonesia in terms of number of doses and share of people who have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine.