A medical worker treats a patient suffering from the Covid-19 in an intensive care unit at the San Filippo Neri hospital in Rome, Italy, October 29, 2020. Photo by Yara Nardi, Reuters

While DoH reports more than 10k weekend recoveries, PH daily Covid cases remain high

We’ve kept our new cases pegged at 1,700 a day   
BENJAMIN CO, MD | Feb 14 2021

[All local data are information downloaded from the Data Drop of the Department of Health. The author does not own any of the information except the analysis of all data. Global data are referenced properly from Worldometers.info, Ourworldindata.org (European CDC), World Health Organization (who.int), and the New York Times. Where appropriate, additional information may be culled from other references or health agencies.


Summary for the day

Another week comes to a close and the Philippines has kept fresh daily cases steady at 1,700 per day. This isn’t the goal as the government plans to reopen a very tired and battered economy. There is an imperative need to keep the numbers down. With a reproduction rate at around 1.0 and an average of 1,700 fresh cases daily, we will remain in this quagmire for awhile.

On a lighter note, the global numbers are clearly taking a significant dip week upon week. As to whether the vaccine programs have created an impact on the transmission of the virus is something that will require further scientific evidence. It may be too early to deduce at this point. However, there is early scientific evidence on the slowing down of deaths (morbidities) in the vulnerable age group where the vaccines have been rolled out.

There was minimal movement from yesterday’s numbers to today’s announced 1,928 new cases. The weekend begins with 8 new deaths and 10,967 recent recoveries announced by the DOH.

The Philippines (February 13, 2021)

  • The National Capital Region accounted for close to one-fourth of the total newly reported cases in the country. Six other regions reported triple digits, aside from NCR: Central Visayas, CALABARZON, Davao Region, Central Luzon, Northern Mindanao and CAR. All seven regions were responsible for over 75 percent of the cases.
  • Nine of the cases reported were from ROFs (returning overseas workers).
  • Quezon City and the City of Manila accounted for 35 percent of the total cases in Mega Manila.
  • The province of Cebu was the lone province reporting triple digits, but the number is lower than those of previous days.
  • The province of Cebu continued to account for 92 percent of the total cases for Central Visayas, with Cebu City accounting for 56 percent of the fresh cases in the province.

February 13, 2021 (The World)

  • With 344,554 new cases in the world, and a 7-day average now at 390,000 cases/day, the world sees a slowing down in the global rise of cases in spite of the presence of various variant strains. The global total number of coronavirus cases is now over 109 million.
  • The number of new deaths is lower with 10,713 reported. The case fatality rate is steady at 2.2 percent.
  • While the US continues to lead globally for new cases and new deaths, they reported less than 90,000 cases and less than 2,300 deaths yesterday. 

The week in review (February 7-13, 2021)

  • The PH has remained flat for 6 weeks in a row. While the holiday surge did not seem to materialize, the numbers also show that we’ve plateaued. Plateauing of daily new cases is not a good sign because it simply means that the strategies put in place by the IATF and DoH need to be revisited so that new cases continue on a downward trajectory. With lockdowns as the only major weapon against this virus in the Philippines, reopening the economy with still high numbers and no other coherent plan(s) may have serious repercussions.
  • From 32nd rank for the longest while, the PH is now back at 31st as even neighboring Asian countries see a drop in new cases.
  • Note the flat curve for the past 6 weeks. The fluctuation in new deaths being reported are secondary to late reporting.
  • Testing capacity should be increased further to sustain the 40,000 individuals tested daily so that the positivity rate falls between the 3-5 percent range and lower. This can be done through improved contact tracing. Submitting all testing results in a more timely manner not only improves efficiency but we get to see the true picture of daily cases in the country in real time.
  • Note the graphs below. One shows how the ten countries with highest cases are doing. All of them are seeing a remarkable drop in new cases. Using the same time period, the Asian nations with the highest cases are also seeing that large drop in number of new cases. This includes Malaysia, Japan, South Korea and Myanmar. Indonesia is also seeing much lower cases the past two weeks. It is the Philippines that has remained flat with an average of 1,700 new cases/day.
  • Several countries have started their immunization versus COVID-19. At the forefront is the United States which has administered already the most doses. And while that is so, almost half the people (that can be immunized) in Israel have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine. The reader is cautioned with respect to the headway being made in Israel because this country has only 9 Million people – around 2/3 the size of Mega Manila.
  • Most of the countries that have fully administered COVID-19 vaccines among its population are the more industrialized nations.