First of all, a Happy New Year, Constant Reader!
Second of all, my apologies if you haven’t been reading regular posts from me these past three weeks. I’ve been off during the holidays doing my due awards-season diligence, watching everything from front runners like Mary Poppins Returns to outliers like At Eternity’s Gate (all while visiting friends and family abroad, of course), so that I can make the informed prognostications you are about to read. I’ll make a prediction on who will win, based on the Golden Globe’s track record, and who should win, just because I’m a critic.
Awards season officially kicks off with the Golden Globes ceremony on Sunday evening, January 6 (to be broadcast live here via Blue Ant Entertainment starting at 9am Monday, January 7). The 90-member Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which votes on the Globes, are known for their idiosyncratic tastes and emphasis on star power in their choices. As such, the Globes stopped being a reliable predictor for Oscar glory ages ago. Still, the ceremony is a good booster for any potential Oscar contender’s presence, because voting for Academy Award nominations start a day after the HFPA hands out their golden spheres.
And lastly, these predictions are for film only. TV is a whole other realm of FOMO experience for me.
BEST MOTION PICTURE — MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Crazy Rich Asians
Mary Poppins Returns
WILL WIN: Mary Poppins Returns, just because it’s such a big, sparkling, nostalgic hit.
SHOULD WIN: The Favourite, because if there is a more diabolical and more fun royal drama out there, I haven’t seen it. (Warner Bros, which releases Fox and Fox Searchlight titles locally, is planning on a Philippine release in February, so mark your calendars.)
BEST MOTION PICTURE — DRAMA
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
WILL WIN: A Star Is Born. This third retelling of an ingenue and the washed-up star who loves and discovers her will be the big winner of the night.
SHOULD WIN: If Roma were nominated here, there would be no doubt where my allegiance would lie. As it stands, with all of the other four nominees having their shortcomings, I would place my bet of worthiness on BlacKkKlansman, just because its outrageousness is so topical.
BEST MOTION PICTURE — ANIMATED
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
WILL WIN: Incredibles 2. Pixar usually has a lock on this category.
SHOULD WIN: Isle of Dogs. It’s heartfelt, it’s quirky, it looks handmade—everything an animated movie should be.
BEST MOTION PICTURE — FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Never Look Away
WILL WIN: Full disclosure: I’ve only seen three of the contenders in this category. But who are we kidding, it’s Roma.
SHOULD WIN: Roma. Although Shoplifters’ victory at Cannes means it has its own champions.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE —DRAMA
Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Rosamund Pike, A Private War
WILL WIN: Lady Gaga. Just try and stop the HFPA from giving the pop star her headlining award moment.
SHOULD WIN: Glenn Close, just as a tribute to a career of consistently standout work.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE —DRAMA
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
WILL WIN: Bradley Cooper. Disclaimer: My bet is on the juggernaut for A Star Is Born to carry its director-lead actor all the way to the podium, but don’t count out Rami Malek and his monstrous overbite just yet.
SHOULD WIN: Willem Dafoe, for giving the oft-portrayed figure of Vincent Van Gogh added heartbreak and grace in At Eternity’s Gate.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE — MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
WILL WIN: Emily Blunt, for being supremely talented and so perfect in the role.
SHOULD WIN: Olivia Colman, for biting into her mad monarch role with such fierceness.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE — MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Christian Bale, Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun
John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie
WILL WIN: Christian Bale. Awards-giving bodies love a transformation, and transform Bale certainly did to play inscrutable Vice-President Dick Cheney.
SHOULD WIN: Christian Bale. No question.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
WILL WIN: Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz both delivered delicious performances, but they could end up splitting the vote. (Besides, how are they in the supporting category? The title role is what they’re both scheming to be!) In that case, the lane is wide open for If Beale Street Could Talk’s Regina King.
SHOULD WIN: Regina King. Her strong, wise yet mournful mother anchors Barry Jenkins’ film, which has a tendency to fly off into the poetic ether in places where it should be gritty and angry.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
WILL WIN: I feel it’s a toss-up between Mahershala Ali’s dignified yet conflicted jazz pianist in Green Book, and Richard E. Grant’s misanthropic drinking buddy in Can You Ever Forgive Me? Both also played one-half of a well-oiled acting duo in their respective films. But if you had to press me, I would go for Richard E. Grant’s showier performance.
SHOULD WIN: Richard E. Grant. Who doesn’t love a cynical drinking buddy?
BEST SCREENPLAY — MOTION PICTURE
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Tony McNamara, Deborah Davis, The Favourite
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Adam McKay, Vice
Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Green Book
WILL WIN: My heart bleeds for Roma, but this could be the one category where the Globes could try for substance and gravitas. In that case, look to The Favourite to be the favorite.
SHOULD WIN: The rapier-sharp dialogue! The narrative pieces that fit together so flawlessly! The humor that will leave you guffawing in equal parts hilarity and horror! Yup, give it to The Favourite.
BEST DIRECTOR — MOTION PICTURE
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
WILL WIN: This is the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, emphasis on the foreign. There is no way they will not reward one they see as their own. Hand that spherical bauble to Alfonso Cuarón.
SHOULD WIN: This is one instance where internal politics and artistic merit do converge. Cuarón made up for 2018’s shortfall of award-worthy titles by making one of the most lyrical and touching films of all time.
The Golden Globes will be telecast live over Blue Ant Entertainment starting at 9am Monday, January 7