Dafoe, da wild card and da sure bet. Photographs from IMDb
Culture Movies

Bradley over Rami, Glenn over Gaga: Our fearless Golden Globes forecast

Factoring in individual merits, Foreign Press quirks, and what the heart wants, of course—our resident critic makes his informed predictions.
Andrew Paredes | Jan 06 2019

First of all, a Happy New Year, Constant Reader!

Second of all, my apologies if you haven’t been reading regular posts from me these past three weeks. I’ve been off during the holidays doing my due awards-season diligence, watching everything from front runners like Mary Poppins Returns to outliers like At Eternity’s Gate (all while visiting friends and family abroad, of course), so that I can make the informed prognostications you are about to read. I’ll make a prediction on who will win, based on the  Golden Globe’s track record, and who should win, just because I’m a critic.

Awards season officially kicks off with the Golden Globes ceremony on Sunday evening, January 6 (to be broadcast live here via Blue Ant Entertainment starting at 9am Monday, January 7). The 90-member Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which votes on the Globes, are known for their idiosyncratic tastes and emphasis on star power in their choices. As such, the Globes stopped being a reliable predictor for Oscar glory ages ago. Still, the ceremony is a good booster for any potential Oscar contender’s presence, because voting for Academy Award nominations start a day after the HFPA hands out their golden spheres.

And lastly, these predictions are for film only. TV is a whole other realm of FOMO experience for me.

 

BEST MOTION PICTURE — MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite

Green Book

Mary Poppins Returns

Vice

Photograph from Disney Enterprises Inc.

WILL WIN: Mary Poppins Returns, just because it’s such a big, sparkling, nostalgic hit.

SHOULD WIN: The Favourite, because if there is a more diabolical and more fun royal drama out there, I haven’t seen it. (Warner Bros, which releases Fox and Fox Searchlight titles locally, is planning on a Philippine release in February, so mark your calendars.)

 

BEST MOTION PICTURE — DRAMA

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star Is Born

Photograph from Warner Bros Entertainment Inc.

WILL WIN: A Star Is Born. This third retelling of an ingenue and the washed-up star who loves and discovers her will be the big winner of the night.

SHOULD WIN: If Roma were nominated here, there would be no doubt where my allegiance would lie. As it stands, with all of the other four nominees having their shortcomings, I would place my bet of worthiness on BlacKkKlansman, just because its outrageousness is so topical.

 

BEST MOTION PICTURE — ANIMATED

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Photograph from IMDb

WILL WIN: Incredibles 2. Pixar usually has a lock on this category.

SHOULD WIN: Isle of Dogs. It’s heartfelt, it’s quirky, it looks handmade—everything an animated movie should be.

 

BEST MOTION PICTURE — FOREIGN LANGUAGE

Capernaum

Girl

Never Look Away

Roma

Shoplifters

Photograph from Carlos Somonte

WILL WIN: Full disclosure: I’ve only seen three of the contenders in this category. But who are we kidding, it’s Roma.

SHOULD WIN: Roma. Although Shoplifters’ victory at Cannes means it has its own champions.

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE —DRAMA

Glenn Close, The Wife

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Rosamund Pike, A Private War

Photograph from IMDb

WILL WIN: Lady Gaga. Just try and stop the HFPA from giving the pop star her headlining award moment.

SHOULD WIN: Glenn Close, just as a tribute to a career of consistently standout work.

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE —DRAMA

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Photograph from Warner Bros Entertainment Inc.

WILL WIN: Bradley Cooper. Disclaimer: My bet is on the juggernaut for A Star Is Born to carry its director-lead actor all the way to the podium, but don’t count out Rami Malek and his monstrous overbite just yet.

SHOULD WIN: Willem Dafoe, for giving the oft-portrayed figure of Vincent Van Gogh added heartbreak and grace in At Eternity’s Gate.

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE — MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Charlize Theron, Tully

Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

Photograph from Disney Enterprises Inc

WILL WIN: Emily Blunt, for being supremely talented and so perfect in the role.

SHOULD WIN: Olivia Colman, for biting into her mad monarch role with such fierceness.

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE — MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Christian Bale, Vice

Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun

John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie

Photograph from IMDb

WILL WIN: Christian Bale. Awards-giving bodies love a transformation, and transform Bale certainly did to play inscrutable Vice-President Dick Cheney.

SHOULD WIN: Christian Bale. No question.

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

Amy Adams, Vice

Claire Foy, First Man

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Photograph from Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation

WILL WIN: Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz both delivered delicious performances, but they could end up splitting the vote. (Besides, how are they in the supporting category? The title role is what they’re both scheming to be!) In that case, the lane is wide open for If Beale Street Could Talk’s Regina King.

SHOULD WIN: Regina King. Her strong, wise yet mournful mother anchors Barry Jenkins’ film, which has a tendency to fly off into the poetic ether in places where it should be gritty and angry.

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Photograph from Universal Pictures

WILL WIN: I feel it’s a toss-up between Mahershala Ali’s dignified yet conflicted jazz pianist in Green Book, and Richard E. Grant’s misanthropic drinking buddy in Can You Ever Forgive Me? Both also played one-half of a well-oiled acting duo in their respective films. But if you had to press me, I would go for Richard E. Grant’s showier performance.

SHOULD WIN: Richard E. Grant. Who doesn’t love a cynical drinking buddy?

 

BEST SCREENPLAY — MOTION PICTURE

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Tony McNamara, Deborah Davis, The Favourite

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Adam McKay, Vice

Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Green Book

Photograph from Carlos Somonte

WILL WIN: My heart bleeds for Roma, but this could be the one category where the Globes could try for substance and gravitas. In that case, look to The Favourite to be the favorite.

SHOULD WIN: The rapier-sharp dialogue! The narrative pieces that fit together so flawlessly! The humor that will leave you guffawing in equal parts hilarity and horror! Yup, give it to The Favourite.

 

BEST DIRECTOR — MOTION PICTURE

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Adam McKay, Vice

Photograph from IMDb

WILL WIN: This is the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, emphasis on the foreign. There is no way they will not reward one they see as their own. Hand that spherical bauble to Alfonso Cuarón.

SHOULD WIN: This is one instance where internal politics and artistic merit do converge. Cuarón made up for 2018’s shortfall of award-worthy titles by making one of the most lyrical and touching films of all time.

 

The Golden Globes will be telecast live over Blue Ant Entertainment starting at 9am Monday, January 7