El Nino more likely, PAGASA warns

by Atom Araullo, ABS-CBN News

Posted at Apr 24 2014 10:43 PM | Updated as of Apr 25 2014 06:43 AM

MANILA - The possibility of an El Nino phenomenon increased from 50 percent to 61 percent over the past month, according to scientists of state weather bureau PAGASA.

The figure is based on data from international monitoring agencies, particularly from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Despite the increase, Anna Solis, officer-in-charge of PAGASA's Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, said that it is still too early to tell if an El Nino event will actually occur.

"We will only find out with certainty by around June if El Nino conditions will actually happen. Some models still predict neutral conditions persisting until the end of the year," she said.

If El Nino does occur, its effects will be felt in the last quarter of 2014, according to PAGASA.

For the Philippines, this means less rainfall and generally drier conditions.

"Pagdating ng monsoon season dapat nag-iipon na ng tubig yung mga dam natin para at least may stock na," said Solis.

El Nino is a global phenomenon that happens periodically over 2 to 7 years and lasts from 9 months to 2 years.