Why 'demolition job' won't bring down Binay

by Jojo Malig, ABS-CBNNews.com

Posted at Sep 03 2014 03:29 AM | Updated as of Sep 04 2014 12:52 AM

MANILA - One single "demolition job" may not be enough to bring down Vice-President Jejomar Binay, the opposition party's presumptive presidential candidate in the 2016 elections, a political analyst and strategist said Tuesday.

Malou Tiquia, in an interview on ANC's "Beyond Politics," believes that Binay's support base is solid.

Tiquia said support for Binay has not been eroded since the 2010 elections.

She added that Binay's strength lies in the "Noy-Bi" base, or supporters of Aquino and his own that saw him and the President elected.

Tiquia added that the former Makati City mayor sees the value of the "Noy-Bi" base that he can use in 2016.

Pulse Asia research president Ronald Holmes echoed Tiquia's assessment.

Holmes said support for Binay is equal across areas and economic groups.

However, survey numbers are not yet firm as not all candidates for the presidency have officially declared their intent to run.

Describing Filipino as "dispositional" and not "intentional" voters, Holmes said even if performance ratings of Binay and other would-be presidential candidates drop, this may may not translate into actual votes for their opponents.

Tiquia, meanwhile, said "political demolition derbies" are the norm before elections.

She said Binay can recover from the current Makati building controversy unless he faces a series of exposés.

Two other presumptive presidential candidates, Interior Secretary Mar Roxas and Senator Alan Peter Cayetano, meanwhile, have been running ads ahead of the 2016 elections.

Cayetano has been running ads anchored on his political bailiwick, Taguig City, where his wife Lani is mayor.

Holmes believes that Cayetanos may not have gained traction yet. "If (the ad's) storyline doesn't evolve, there's a problem," he said.

He added that political ads may increase name recall but may not necessarily translate to votes.

Holmes said politicians must carefully craft ads, adding that authenticity and credibility still matter despite having many ads aired.

He said votes are often based on what the candidates have done lately.

Tiquia, meanwhile, said Roxas ads that air the provinces are "very scientific." She said the way it was crafted "doesn't evoke emotional attachment."

Holmes believes ads are still the way to go for national candidates. "The ads counted in limit are not those coming out now."

The Supreme Court on Tuesday lifted airtime limits on political ads, and unanimously declared as unconstitutional the Commission on Elections' regulations on them.

Tiquia said candidates in 2016 should not look only at traditional platforms such as television, radio or print media for political ads.

She said candidates should combine traditional media and the internet for their respective campaigns.