The Race Is On

by Leo Alejandrino

Posted at Feb 11 2013 09:40 AM | Updated as of Feb 11 2013 05:41 PM

Nate Silver is a God among political junkies. He predicts elections. He accurately called the 2012 U.S. presidential results in all 50 states and in 49 of 50 states in 2008.

Here are some of the things he says: One, most election forecasts are biased. Liberals will call for liberal candidates, conservatives for conservatives.

Two, it is easier to predict the bigger races (Presidential, Senatorial) than the smaller ones (Congressional, local).

Three, although there may be outliers, the consensus is mostly correct. The prospect of a dark horse beating the pack is rare.

Four, polls are better than qualitative factors in determining outcomes. The numbers will change over a campaign but will get more accurate the closer to E-Day. Candidates who are up by 5% over their rivals around election day win 95% of the time.

Feb. 12 kicks off the Philippine political season with all eyes on the critical Senatorial race. Below are the SWS polls taken in August and December of 2012 and Jan 17 2013:

Ranking on 8/12 12/12 1/13 (% of votes)

Loren Legarda (TP/UNA) 2 1 1 (65%)

Chiz Escudero (TP/UNA) 1 2 2 (62%)

Alan Cayetano (TP) 3 3 3 (58%)

JV Ejercito (UNA) 8-9 5 4 (53%)

G. Honasan (UNA) 5-7 8 5-6 (48%)

Koko Pimentel (TP) 8-9 6-7 5-6 (48%)

M. Zubiri (UNA) 10-11 9-10 7 (47%)

Cynthia Villar (TP) 10-11 4 8-9 (46%)

J. Enrile (UNA) 4 6-7 8-9 (46%)

A. Trillanes (TP) 5-7 11 10 (45%)

Grace Poe (TP/UNA) 26-28 13 11 (45%)

N. Binay (UNA) - 9-10 12 (43%)

—————-

S. Angara (TP) 5-7 13 13 (39%)

D. Gordon (UNA) 12 12 14 (36%)

Bam Aquino (TP) 17 17 15 (34%)

Jun Magsaysay (TP) 14 15 16 (33%)

Janby Madrigal (TP) 16 14 17 (28%)

Risa Hontiveros (TP) 18 18 18-19 (25%)

E. Maceda (TP) 20 16 18-19 (25%)

T. Cojuangco (UNA) 22 23 20 (14%)

Conclusions: